India grew 7.8 percent in April-June as manufacturing and services carried the print

India's statistics ministry put real GDP growth at 7.8 percent for April-June 2026, up from 6.9 percent a year earlier and above the Reserve Bank's 7 percent mark for the quarter. The print is slower than the 8.6 percent recorded in January-March. Real GDP in the quarter was Rs 81.36 lakh crore, against Rs 75.46 lakh crore a year ago. Nominal GDP rose 10.3 percent to Rs 88.27 lakh crore.

Gross value added grew 8.2 percent. The ministry's own note, embargoed until 4 p.m. on 31 August, gives the sector split in constant prices. The tertiary sector expanded 10.0 percent. Financial, real estate, IT and professional services grew 12.1 percent. Trade, hotels, transport and communications grew 8.5 percent. The secondary sector grew 8.6 percent. Manufacturing rose 9.2 percent, from 8.3 percent a year earlier. Electricity, gas and water recovered 8.9 percent after a 1.8 percent contraction last year. Construction rose 7.7 percent from 5.2 percent.

The primary sector grew 2.9 percent. Agriculture and allied activities rose 3.6 percent, slower than 4.4 percent a year ago. Mining contracted 2.4 percent after a 12.4 percent jump in the year-earlier quarter. That is the soft patch inside an otherwise firm print.

On the demand side, gross fixed capital formation rose 11.9 percent. Private final consumption expenditure rose 7.1 percent. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran told reporters that combined capital spending by the Centre, the states and central public sector firms grew 16.9 percent in the quarter, against 11.4 percent in FY26. He said food prices, the monsoon and the external setting still need watching. He also said full-year growth is likely to cross 7 percent.

The context for the number is the oil shock. Crude has been elevated through the Iran war and the squeeze on the Strait of Hormuz. India's crude imports from traditional suppliers have shifted. US LPG imports rose sharply in the same quarter while crude purchases from some older sources fell. The GDP release does not isolate the energy bill. It does show that domestic investment and services kept the headline above last year's first quarter and above the RBI's published expectation.

Madan Sabnavis at Bank of Baroda said a 7 percent full-year outcome would make this the fourth straight year above that line. Nirmal K. Minda at ASSOCHAM called the manufacturing and construction contribution encouraging given West Asia. Those are industry readings, not official forecasts. The official forecast still sits with the RBI and the finance ministry.

Two details in the same week sit next to the print. The rupee firmed 26 paise to 94.96 against the dollar on 1 September after the data, then the equity market closed almost flat, with the Sensex at 76,944.28 and the Nifty at 24,055.80. Foreign institutional investors sold Rs 7,985.88 crore of Indian equities on 31 August. Strong growth and a heavy FII sale can travel together when global oil and the dollar are the other two variables on the screen.

The composition matters more than the headline. A 12.1 percent rise in financial and professional services and a 9.2 percent rise in manufacturing will not last if capital goods orders stall or if the monsoon shortfall feeds into rural demand in the second half. Capital-goods output itself rose 16.1 percent in June, and industry credit was up 19.2 percent year on year, which is why the investment side of the accounts looks firm. Agriculture at 3.6 percent and mining in contraction are the two lines that keep the full-year number from running away.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, back from the SCO summit in Bishkek, called the quarter a feat against wars and instability and repeated an appeal for austerity in government spending. That is a political sentence attached to a statistical release. The release itself is simpler. India grew 7.8 percent in the first quarter. Services and factories did the work. The farm and the mine did not.