EU gas stores sit at 63 percent, the lowest late-August fill in 13 years

European Union gas storage was 63 percent full in the last week of August, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe figures cited across weekend coverage. The five-year late-August average is near 80 percent. Analysts tracking the injection season say the bloc is on course to start winter at the lowest stock level since 2013.

Greg Molnar, a gas analyst, told the Guardian that if injections stay this slow, inventories will enter the heating season about a fifth below the five-year average. Traders have started using the phrase “winter panic” for the same gap.

Where the tanks are empty

The averages hide national splits. Germany holds the largest storage capacity in Europe and was about half full. Belgium stood at 51 percent and the Netherlands at 45 percent. Those two markets connect to Britain by pipeline, which is why UK price desks are watching the same numbers even though Britain is outside the EU storage mandate.

The Netherlands has already warned that it may miss its national fill target. Sweden has been reported near 10 percent, a figure that matters less in volume than as a signal that some small systems never rebuilt after last winter.

Italy, Poland and Portugal have been among the fuller systems, helped in Italy’s case by Snam’s regasification terminals.

Why the refill stalled

Three supply facts sit on top of each other. The US-Israel war with Iran cut Qatari and other Gulf LNG that normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carried about a fifth of seaborne oil and LNG before the fighting. Europe then had to bid against Asia for a smaller pool of Atlantic and US cargoes. Northwest European LNG prices rose to their highest since 2023.

The starting point was already low. A cold end to the 2025-26 winter left storage near 28 percent when the April injection season began. Summer heat then kept gas-fired power running harder than planners budgeted.

Price structure made storage unattractive. Summer contracts have traded at a premium to winter contracts. European Gas Hub put the April-to-date TTF seasonal spread at about minus €1.5 per megawatt hour. When winter gas is cheaper on the curve than summer gas, buying now to inject and sell later loses money. Injections this year have run about 20 percent, or 7.5 billion cubic metres, behind last year. Inventories sit about 17.5 billion cubic metres, or 20 percent, below the five-year average.

The target that was already softened

Brussels had told members to reach 90 percent by 1 November in earlier cycles. The working target this year is 80 percent, with flexibility down to 75 percent to avoid a scramble that would lift prices further. On present injection rates some desks see a November fill near 73 percent, the weakest end-of-season stock since 2013.

Wood Mackenzie had earlier sketched a best case near 75 percent on 1 November if Qatari output returned in September. Hormuz is still closed on Tehran’s account. That best case is not the base case.

What households and firms face

Low stocks do not mean shortage on 1 November. They mean less buffer if December and January run cold, if wind output drops, or if another cargo lane closes. Spot buying in mid-winter is how 2022 prices were set. TTF has been calmer in recent weeks than in March, which can mislead. Calm with empty tanks is a different risk from calm with full tanks.

Britain is exposed through the Belgian and Dutch interconnectors and through LNG competition. It has little storage of its own. A tight EU winter shows up quickly in UK day-ahead gas and then in power.

The operational question for energy ministries is no longer whether the 90 percent rule can be met. It is whether they will buy expensive cargoes in September and October to close part of the gap, or accept a thinner winter and hope the weather is kind.