IMF keeps a 3 percent 2026 growth call as oil and public debt stay high

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday, 10 September 2026, that world output is still on course to grow by about 3 percent this year even though the Iran war has lasted six months and oil has moved back above $100. Spokesperson Julie Kozack told the Fund's regular briefing that the energy shock is not over and that risks remain high.

The July World Economic Outlook already printed 3.0 percent for 2026, down from 3.5 percent in 2024-25 and from 3.1 percent in the April book. That July number assumed the war would ease from mid-July and that Hormuz traffic would grind back toward normal by March 2027. Neither assumption has held. Kozack still declined to cut the headline. She said strategic reserves, new supply routes and demand destruction had limited the damage so far.

She also said global public debt is approaching 100 percent of GDP, the highest ratio since the Second World War. Disinflation after the 2022 price spike has stalled. The Fund expects consumer prices to rise 4.7 percent in 2026, against 4.1 percent in 2025. Oil is projected to be up nearly 32 percent this year on the July paths. Those paths used an $89 average crude price. Thursday's Brent settle was $107.63.

The next full forecast will be released at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, 12 to 18 October. Until then staff will watch three items: Hormuz loadings, Chinese crude buying, and whether AI-related investment keeps offsetting the energy drag. The July text said technology demand had prevented a sharper slump. Kozack did not repeat a numerical split on Thursday.

Country detail from July still shapes the debate. The United States was pencilled at 2.3 percent growth this year. Emerging markets as a group were at 3.8 percent, then 4.5 percent in 2027. Iran's 2026 contraction was revised to minus 5.4 percent in July after a brief export window in March and April. That window has narrowed again with the new tanker strikes.

Kozack urged central banks to stay with price-stability mandates. That is Fund house style. The sharper line in the briefing was the debt ratio. A world that grew through an energy war by drawing down stocks and rerouting cargo is also a world that has levered public balance sheets to the highest point in 80 years. Bangkok will have to say whether 3 percent survives $100 oil for a second quarter, or whether the October book finally moves the decimal.