US Inflation Rises to 3.7 Percent in September as Gasoline Prices Surge

US consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the 12 months through September 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 14 October.

The monthly increase was 0.6 percent, matching most forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent for the month and 2.6 percent over the year, up from 2.4 percent in August. Both readings exceeded some expectations by a tenth of a point.

Gasoline prices jumped 9.1 percent in September and accounted for more than half of the overall monthly rise in the Consumer Price Index. Energy prices as a group climbed 5.2 percent. Over the past year gasoline is up 34.2 percent and the broader energy index is up 20.4 percent.

The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $4.33 a gallon on the day of the report, according to AAA. That is roughly 45 percent higher than the $2.98 average recorded just before the Iran conflict began in late February. Diesel reached $6.29 a gallon, a record level that raises costs for trucking and grocery distribution.

Shelter costs, used-vehicle prices, apparel and airline fares also increased. Food at home was nearly flat for the month. The data arrive weeks before midterm elections in which affordability remains a central voter concern. Inflation has outpaced average wage growth for six consecutive months.

Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics said the war's effects are visible across the report. Higher energy costs have fed into other prices even as core measures remain below the peak levels of earlier years. The Federal Reserve now faces renewed discussion about whether another rate increase is warranted this month.

The Iran conflict has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and raised insurance and freight costs for oil. A temporary understanding between the United States and Iran expired in August, after which attacks on vessels resumed. Russian diesel exports have also been constrained by the war in Ukraine and by Ukrainian strikes on refining capacity.

Trump administration officials have pointed to a recent agreement to purchase Russian diesel as one step toward easing US pump prices. Critics note that overall energy inflation continues to climb. The September CPI is the last major inflation snapshot before voters cast ballots in early November.

Household budgets feel the pressure most directly at the pump and in grocery stores, where diesel costs eventually appear in retail prices. The BLS figures show the breadth of the increase: more than half the CPI basket is still rising at an annualised pace above 3 percent.

Whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or holds them will depend in part on the next labour-market and inflation readings. For now the September data confirm that energy remains the dominant driver of the latest acceleration.