Sweden's left bloc holds a thin poll lead a day before voters choose a Riksdag

Sweden votes on Sunday for a new Riksdag. Friday's last full polls still put Magdalena Andersson's centre-left grouping narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing bloc, which has governed since 2022 with outside support from the Sweden Democrats.

Indikator Opinion, polling 5,642 people from 2 to 10 September for public broadcaster SR's Ekot desk, gave the four left-leaning parties 50.8 percent, enough on that sample for 180 of 349 seats. The government parties plus the Sweden Democrats stood at 47.6 percent, or 169 seats. A lead of 3.2 points is small in a system with an eight-party field and a 4 percent threshold.

The party numbers

The Social Democrats remain the largest party at 28.6 percent in the Ekot survey, 1.7 points below their 2022 result. The Sweden Democrats are the largest force on the right at 18.3 percent, down 2.2 points from 2022. The Moderates, Kristersson's own party, sit behind them.

Other Friday readings do not line up perfectly. Demoskop put the Social Democrats at 29.7 percent and the Sweden Democrats at 19.0. Ipsos, in fieldwork from 7 to 10 September, had the Social Democrats at 27.4, the Sweden Democrats at 18.8 and the Moderates at 18.3. Ipsos also put the Liberals at 5.0 percent, back above the threshold after months of danger. That single shift would change seat maps if it holds on Sunday.

A 30-day average compiled by Polara from 89 polls still shows a dead heat when the Centre Party is treated as a swing bloc rather than as a fixed member of either camp. One projection on 10 September gave the left 161 seats and the right 160, both short of the 175 needed for a majority, with the Centre holding the balance.

What Kristersson has put on the table

Kristersson has said that if the right wins he will give the Sweden Democrats cabinet jobs. The party has neo-Nazi origins and has spent four years propping up the coalition from outside. Leader Jimmie Akesson wants several major ministries. That promise turns Sunday into a vote about whether the anti-immigration party enters government for the first time, not only about which bloc is larger.

The campaign has run on gang crime, immigration, welfare costs and energy. Andersson has pledged higher public spending. A change of government would likely mean more money for welfare and little movement on Ukraine policy or on the harder line on asylum that the current government already adopted under Sweden Democrat pressure.

More than eight million people can vote. Swedes are used to minority and coalition arithmetic. The unusual piece this year is the open offer of cabinet seats to a party that the other right-wing parties once treated as untouchable. If the left's lead survives the count, Andersson returns after four years out. If it does not, the Sweden Democrats will test whether ministerial office changes them or changes the government that let them in.