Kulbergs' United List takes 42 seats, the strongest Latvian result since 1991

Andris Kulbergs' United List won Latvia's parliamentary election by a margin no single party has managed since independence in 1991. With 97 percent of ballots counted after Saturday's vote, the list stood at 35.3 percent, enough for 42 seats in the 100-seat Saeima, Reuters reported from Riga. A later count cited by BB.LV, at about 99 percent, put the same party on 42 mandates and 35.3 percent.

Latvia First, led by Ainars Slesers, was second on 13.1 percent and about 17 seats. Sovereign Power, running with the Alliance of Young Latvians, was third on 11.7 percent and about 15 seats. The National Alliance took 8.9 percent and 10 seats, the Progressives 7.81 percent and nine, and New Unity 6.34 percent and seven. The Union of Greens and Farmers fell below the 5 percent threshold and is out of the next parliament. Eight lists in all failed to clear that bar.

A prime minister who arrived in May

Kulbergs, 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver, became prime minister in May after the previous coalition broke over its handling of stray Ukrainian military drones that entered Latvian airspace undetected. Reuters noted a May army report of two drones from Russia crashing in Latvia. He has spent the campaign promising more anti-drone equipment and defence spending held at 5 percent of gross domestic product, one of the higher levels in NATO.

On election night he told reporters at party headquarters that any economic tie with Russia was a weakness Moscow could use. "It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such a result," he said. He has also promised less red tape and lower public spending. Political scientist Roberts Kits told Reuters that Kulbergs had sold himself as someone who gets things done, and that voters now expect delivery from a team that has not yet been tested in a full term.

A majority is available, a full term is not guaranteed

No Latvian government has lasted a full term, political scientist Janis Ikstens told Reuters. United List is a loose alliance of small parties and independents, which makes the 42 seats less solid than the number suggests. Kits said Kulbergs could reach a majority with either the National Alliance or the Progressives. New Unity, a partner in the outgoing coalition, also cleared the threshold. Together with the National Alliance, those partners look sufficient without the Greens and Farmers.

The arithmetic still leaves him negotiating. Forty-two seats is a record for one list since 1991. Latvian Way took 36 in 1993, Unity 33 in 2010, and Harmony 31 in 2011. It is not a majority on its own.

Turnout and the Russian-speaking vote

Turnout was 51.8 percent, down from 59.4 percent in 2022. Ikstens read that drop as disappointment with politicians. Latvia has about 1.9 million people, a NATO and EU member between the Baltic Sea and Russia and Belarus, with Estonia to the north and Lithuania to the south.

Latvia First courted the ethnic Russian minority. Sovereign Power is described by Reuters as pro-Russian. Both gained seats. Kits said they remain sidelined and are unlikely to shape government policy. Their campaign line was the opposite of Kulbergs': stop aid to Ukraine and spend on the cost of living, especially among Russian speakers. The minority itself is split between people who oppose Moscow's war and people who see language and citizenship rules at home as discriminatory.

Aina Sturmane, 78, a pensioner in Riga, told Reuters she hoped Kulbergs would change what could be changed. The open question is whether a list built for this result can hold a cabinet. The seat count gives him the strongest opening a Latvian prime minister has had in a generation. The history of the Saeima says that opening has not, so far, lasted four years.