Kulbergs takes 42 seats and still needs partners for a Saeima majority

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is in a position to stay in office after his United List took the largest share of a parliamentary election since the country regained independence in 1991. With 97 percent of ballots counted after Saturday's vote, Reuters put United List at 35.3 percent, enough for 42 seats in the 100-seat Saeima.

Forty-two is not a majority. Kulbergs, 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver who took office in May, still has to negotiate. Two partners from the outgoing coalition cleared the 5 percent threshold: the conservative National Alliance and centre-right New Unity. Politico reported that those two, with United List, appear to have enough seats for a majority without the Union of Greens and Farmers, which fell below the line.

The dpa count, with 94 percent of stations in, had United List at 35.4 percent, Latvia First at 13.2 percent, and Sovereign Power at 11.8 percent. The Progressives were on 7.4 percent. National Alliance was on 9.1 percent and New Unity on 6.2 percent. Six of the 14 lists that stood will sit in the next parliament. Turnout was 51.8 percent, down from 59.4 percent in 2022.

Kulbergs came to power after the previous coalition broke over stray Ukrainian military drones that crossed into Latvia undetected. He campaigned on more anti-drone equipment and on holding defence spending at 5 percent of gross domestic product, one of the higher levels in NATO. He told reporters the result was better than he had expected. The campaign itself was about security and the economy, in a country that borders both Russia and Belarus.

Second place went to Latvia First, a populist list led by Ainars Slesers, on 13.1 percent in the Reuters tally. Slesers has opposed restrictive tariffs on Russia and courted the Russian-speaking minority. Third was Sovereign Power, described by Reuters as pro-Russian, on 11.7 percent. National Alliance, which argues for a harder line toward the Kremlin, was fourth on 8.9 percent in that count. The two lists that did well among Russian-speaking voters gained seats. They remain outside the coalition arithmetic Kulbergs is using.

United List more than tripled its previous election result, dpa said. A plurality that large still leaves the prime minister short of 51 votes. The practical question is which small partners he keeps. New Unity and National Alliance are the available ones that already sat with him. Dropping the Greens and Farmers, if that list is out, removes a rural bargaining chip and concentrates the majority in three lists that all campaigned on defence.

The seat math is the part pre-election coverage underplayed. Forty-two seats means United List can lead and cannot govern alone. A three-party deal with National Alliance and New Unity would clear 50 if their shares hold near the dpa figures of 9.1 and 6.2, which together are worth roughly 15 seats, plus 42. That is a majority with little spare room if a partner defects on a budget vote.

Defence at 5 percent of GDP is a number, not a slogan. It fixes a floor for the next budget at a moment when drone incursions, not a land invasion, brought this prime minister to office. The anti-drone line he promised is a procurement item: sensors, interceptors, and a chain of command that noticed the last set of stray Ukrainian drones too late. Those drones are what collapsed the previous coalition. The new one will be judged on whether the next incursion is seen before it lands.

Pro-Russian lists gained seats and stay isolated if Kulbergs holds the line he campaigned on. Isolation is not the same as irrelevance. Latvia First and Sovereign Power together are above 24 percent in the early counts. They will have a platform in the Saeima even if they have no ministers. Tariff votes and language policy are where that bloc will try to split the majority.

Kulbergs said he was not expecting a result this large. The size does not remove the coalition talks. It shortens them. The open question is whether New Unity, smaller than National Alliance in this count, accepts a junior role, or whether Kulbergs has to widen the deal and dilute the defence floor he just won on.