Kulbergs's United List takes 42 Saeima seats, the largest share since 1991

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's United List won Latvia's parliamentary election by a margin no party has posted since the country left the Soviet Union in 1991. With 97 percent of Saturday's ballots counted, Reuters put the centrist alliance at 35.3 percent, enough for 42 seats in the 100-seat Saeima. The German press agency dpa, citing the electoral commission after counting finished at all stations, put the seat total at 41. Either figure is a plurality large enough to lead coalition talks, and neither is a majority on its own.

Latvia First, the populist party led by Ainārs Šlesers, finished second. Reuters had it at 13.1 percent. dpa gave it 17 seats. Sovereign Power, which draws support from Russian-speaking voters, was third on 11.7 percent in the Reuters count and 15 seats in the dpa tally. The National Alliance, a hard-line party on Russia, took 8.9 percent and 10 seats. New Unity, a partner in the outgoing coalition, cleared the 5 percent threshold with 7 seats. The Progressives took 10. The Union of Greens and Farmers fell short of 5 percent and is out. Six lists will sit in the new Saeima.

Turnout was 51.8 percent. In 2022 it was 59.4 percent. The commission's first reading called Saturday the lowest turnout in a Saeima election since independence. Kulbergs, 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver, said he had not expected the result. He came to office in May after the previous coalition broke over stray Ukrainian military drones that entered Latvian airspace undetected. His campaign promised more anti-drone equipment and defence spending held at 5 percent of gross domestic product, among the highest shares in NATO.

He has ruled out a deal with Latvia First or Sovereign Power. United List said it would open talks with the National Alliance and New Unity, the two partners that returned. Those three lists together hold 58 or 59 seats, depending on the final United List number, which is a majority without the Greens and Farmers. President Edgars Rinkēvičs, who issues the mandate to form a government, plans to meet representatives of the elected lists on Monday.

The security argument is the one Kulbergs will take into those talks. Latvia borders Russia and Belarus. The drone incidents that brought down the last coalition were not strikes on Latvian targets. They were aircraft that crossed the border and were not picked up in time. A government that treats that as a procurement failure can spend on sensors and still lose the next argument if a drone lands again. Holding defence at 5 percent of GDP also fixes a budget share before the finance ministry writes the next year's numbers. Partners who want tax cuts or farm support will have to find the money around that floor.

Šlesers campaigned against restrictive tariffs on Russia and courted the Russian-speaking minority. Sovereign Power's third place shows that vote is organised, not marginal. Kulbergs's refusal to deal with either list leaves them as an opposition bloc of roughly 30 seats. They cannot block ordinary laws. They can slow appointments and use committee time. The National Alliance's return gives the likely coalition a party that wants a harder line than Kulbergs has so far spelled out in public.

The seat maths is the concrete gain for readers who have only seen the percentage. Forty-two seats is not control. It is the largest bargaining chip in a chamber where 51 is the line. A three-party deal at 58 seats can pass a budget and a defence bill. It can also lose a vote if seven New Unity members peel off. Rinkēvičs does not have to hand the mandate to the largest list, though that is the practice. Monday's meetings will show whether the partners accept Kulbergs's terms on drones and the 5 percent floor before he is formally asked to form the cabinet.