India-US trade pact is 'more or less' done, commerce secretary says, with no signing date

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said in Mumbai on Wednesday that an India-United States trade pact is "more or less" finalised and will be signed "at an appropriate time." A few issues remain open. The two sides are still designing a legal frame that gives each country preferential access while Washington runs a system of executive tariffs and New Delhi runs most-favoured-nation rates.

Agrawal spoke on the sidelines of the Global Fintech Fest. He said Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has already told Parliament and the press that the text is largely done. The remaining work, as Agrawal described it, is architectural. India can cut or bind an MFN rate and the preference appears in the tariff schedule. The United States, under the current White House, has layered additional executive tariffs on top of bound rates. A preference for Indian goods has to punch through that layer without collapsing the rest of the executive schedule. That is the architecture he said American lawyers are still building.

A framework for a first phase was announced in February. Then the American tariff map moved. A temporary 10 percent tariff on imports from all partners, imposed from 24 February, was set to lapse on 24 July. Fresh executive rates followed. Negotiators who thought they were finishing an interim bilateral trade agreement found themselves renegotiating around a moving wall. Agrawal's Wednesday line is that the wall is now understood and that only a few points are left.

The trade numbers explain why both capitals still want a signature. In April-July of 2026-27, India's merchandise exports to the United States grew 3 percent to $34.5 billion. Imports from the United States rose 22.42 percent to $22.12 billion. For the last full fiscal year, exports were $87.3 billion, up 0.92 percent, and imports $52.9 billion, up 15.95 percent. The surplus shrank from $40.89 billion to $34.4 billion. Indian firms want tariff certainty more than they want a speech about a surplus. American exporters want the same certainty in the other direction, especially in farm goods, medical devices and energy, files that have stalled previous rounds.

Agrawal said companies on both sides are already engaging strongly and are satisfied with the understanding between the governments. That is a civil-service way of saying the lobbies are not blocking the text. It is not the same as a signed chapter on digital trade, non-tariff barriers or rules of origin. Those were on the June ministerial agenda. They were not declared closed on Wednesday.

Chile sat in the same briefing. Agrawal said a free-trade agreement with Santiago is in its final stage, with certain areas still stuck, and that he hoped for movement in two to three months. The pairing was deliberate. India is closing smaller deals while the American file waits for an appropriate time. Appropriate, in this usage, means a week when the White House wants a signing photo and the tariff architecture is stable enough to print.

Preferential access is the whole point of a bilateral pact. Without it the document is a press release. With it, Indian goods need a rate that is better than the executive tariff applied to a third country, and American goods need a rate better than India's MFN. Agrawal put that requirement on the record. He did not list the sectors still open. Farm, dairy, medical devices and data flows have been the usual last items in this negotiation. Until those names appear in a joint statement, "a few things" remains a phrase that can hide a year.

The political calendar in both countries is not empty. India is preparing a BRICS summit in New Delhi this week. The United States is heading into midterm season with oil above $100 after the latest strikes on Iranian tankers. A trade signing can be timed to either calendar or to neither. Agrawal's refusal to name a month is the story as much as his claim that the pact is nearly done. Nearly done, with no date, is the state of the deal on 9 September.