India’s Russian crude intake falls 26 percent from July’s record

India imported 2.08 million barrels a day of Russian crude in August, 26.3 percent below July’s record 2.82 million barrels a day, according to provisional vessel-tracking figures from Kpler. Moscow’s share of India’s crude slate fell from 55.9 percent to 45 percent. Russia remained the largest single supplier.

Total Indian crude imports slipped about 8 percent, to roughly 4.6–4.7 million barrels a day from about 5.05 million in July. The August total was still the highest for that month in five years and above the five-year August average of 4.2 million. High refining margins led many plants to postpone monsoon maintenance, so the drop is not explained by turnarounds alone.

Where the missing barrels went

Seaborne Russian crude exports fell to 3.7 million barrels a day in August from 4.1 million in July. The cut was concentrated at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, India’s second-largest source of Russian barrels since April. Loadings there dropped to 616,000 barrels a day from 800,000. Ukrainian strikes on export kit and on Russian refineries have both reduced what can leave the Black Sea and pushed more unsold crude onto the water from other ports.

China raised total crude purchases to 7.4 million barrels a day from 6.9 million in July, and lifted its Russian intake to 1.7 million from 1.4 million. With Black Sea risk high, more Russian ships have been pointed at Pacific routes where China is the closer bid. Sumit Ritolia at Kpler said the Indian decline mixed four things: refinery maintenance, a hangover from very heavy June-July buying, tighter Russian export availability, and Chinese competition. He does not read it as a policy retreat. He expects Indian-Russian flows to settle between 2.0 and 2.5 million barrels a day.

What filled the gap

Venezuelan barrels into India hit their highest monthly level since 2020 after Washington allowed more of that crude onto the market. India had spent nearly a year at zero Venezuelan imports before restarting the trade. Early August snapshots from Kpler also showed the United Arab Emirates near 611,000 barrels a day, Saudi Arabia near 385,000, Venezuela near 383,000, Nigeria near 129,000 and Brazil near 120,000.

The Hormuz war is a separate constraint. About 40 percent of India’s crude used to transit the strait. A large share of that Gulf supply is now effectively offline. Russian barrels arriving from the north and east have been the substitute. When those barrels tighten, Indian refiners look to West Africa and the Americas, which is what the August mix shows.

The political reading that the data do not support

A 26 percent month-on-month fall will be cited as proof that India is stepping away from discounted Russian oil. The Kpler series does not show that. A 45 percent share is still a dominant position. The forecast band of 2.0 to 2.5 million barrels a day would keep Russia at the top of the Indian slate. What changed in August is availability and a Chinese bid, not a New Delhi decree.

The figure that matters for the next quarter is Novorossiysk. If Black Sea loadings stay near 600,000 barrels a day, India will keep bidding for ESPO and Baltic cargoes against China and will keep topping up with Venezuelan and Atlantic barrels. If Novorossiysk recovers, the July record is available again. The August print is a supply story first.