India's Russian crude intake drops 26 percent from July's record

India imported 2.08 million barrels a day of Russian crude in August, 26.3 percent below July's record of 2.82 million barrels a day, according to provisional tanker-tracking figures from Kpler reported on 2 September. Russia's share of the Indian slate fell to 45 percent from 55.9 percent. The drop in Russian volumes was the main reason India's total crude imports fell by more than 8 percent, to about 4.7 million barrels a day from 5.05 million.

Russia remained the largest single supplier. Behind it, in Kpler's August snapshot, stood the United Arab Emirates at 611,000 barrels a day, Saudi Arabia at 385,000, Venezuela at 383,000, Nigeria at 129,000 and Brazil at 120,000. Venezuelan barrels were the highest monthly total for India since 2020. New Delhi had gone nearly a year without that grade after earlier U.S. restrictions. The reopening of Venezuelan supply, under the new Washington-Caracas arrangements, is already visible in Indian ports.

The decline is not a loss of appetite. Sumit Ritolia at Kpler listed four causes: refinery maintenance, a come-down after very heavy buying in June and July, tighter Russian export availability, and stronger Chinese bidding for the same barrels. China raised total crude purchases to 7.4 million barrels a day in August from 6.9 million in July and lifted its own Russian intake to 1.7 million from 1.4 million.

Seaborne Russian crude exports slipped to 3.7 million barrels a day from 4.1 million. The loss was concentrated at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, which had been India's second-largest Russian loading point since April. Shipments from that port to India fell to 616,000 barrels a day from 800,000. Ukrainian drone strikes on the Sheskharis terminal and on Russian refineries cut what Moscow could load even as more unsold crude appeared because domestic plants were hit. Loadings rose at Kozmino on the Pacific and at Ust-Luga. Those routes favour China on freight.

About 40 percent of India's crude usually arrived through the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of that channel is now effectively closed or priced as a war risk. That is why West African and American barrels, and the Venezuelan return, matter this month more than they did in the spring. It is also why a 26 percent slide in Russian volumes does not free India from Moscow. Two million barrels a day is still a foundation grade.

August's 4.7 million barrel total was still the highest figure for that month in five years and above the five-year August average of 4.2 million. Fuel cracks were strong enough that several refiners postponed monsoon turnarounds. MRPL in Mangalore and the Panipat plant did take units down, which accounts for part of the lower intake. The rest is geography and competition.

Brent near $96 after the 1 September strikes on Iran changes the next spreadsheet. Russian barrels remain discounted. They are no longer the easy bargain they were when the Black Sea was quieter and China was buying less. Indian refiners will keep shopping in the Atlantic basin and in Caracas. They will also keep lifting Urals and ESPO when the ships exist. The number to watch in September is not whether Russia stays first. It is whether Novorossiysk keeps falling and whether Venezuelan grades can replace even a slice of the Hormuz barrel that no longer arrives on time.