Farage and Bardella sign a Channel returns pact that binds only if both win power

Nigel Farage and Jordan Bardella signed a bilingual memorandum of understanding at Reform UK's conference in Birmingham on Friday. The paper says that if both parties later form governments, Britain will intercept boats that have left French shores and entered British waters, and France will "ordinarily accept" the people on board and send them on to their countries of origin under French expulsion law.

Farage called the signing a "new entente cordiale" and said the document would "stop the boats forever." Bardella, speaking in English to the hall and later in French to reporters, said the United Kingdom should not be the destination for people who enter France without leave. He accused President Emmanuel Macron of failing to protect French borders and said that if France managed those borders better, "no one would leave Calais."

The document is not a treaty. It binds two parties, not two states, and only if those parties win the next national elections in each country. Bardella is president of National Rally and the name Marine Le Pen has put forward as a possible prime minister if she wins the presidency in April. Reform UK is polling ahead of the Conservatives in Britain. Neither result is in hand.

The word that will be argued over is "ordinarily." Asked whether that left France room to refuse some boats, Farage called it "legalese." The memorandum also says France will do "its utmost" to stop departures and that the cost of the policing work will be assessed later. It describes both parties as committed to the nation state, secure borders, expulsion of illegal migrants and the preservation of national identity.

The timing was pointed. Macron had been in London on Thursday with Prime Minister Andy Burnham to discuss Channel crossings and the wider British-European relationship. Farage used Friday to present an alternative pairing. He also defended the choice of partner. National Rally's predecessor, the Front National, was founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen. Farage said he would not have signed with that earlier party and credited Marine Le Pen with moving it into the French mainstream.

Reform UK has already said that, in office, it would use the Navy to turn boats back to French ports. The memorandum is the political wrapper for that plan. It does not create a legal duty on any French prefect or any British captain. It does set a public test. If National Rally enters government and then refuses a return, Farage's "forever" line will be quoted back at him. If Reform wins and France's next government declines to treat "ordinarily" as "always," the same problem appears from the other shore.

Channel policy has been the graveyard of several British-French texts. The present Labour government under Burnham is trying to raise the pace of returns under existing law. Numbers of small-boat arrivals remain the metric both sides campaign on. Friday's paper does not change those numbers. It changes the cast list of who claims the next attempt will work.

Bardella is 30. He rarely gives long speeches in English. He did so in Birmingham because the audience and the cameras were British. The French press conference that followed returned to the sharper line that control starts at Calais, not at Dover. That split in emphasis is the real content of the memorandum. Britain wants France to take people back. France wants fewer people to leave. The two leaders signed a text that pretends those aims are the same instruction.

Delegates cheered. An audience member shouted "Viva le France." The paper they waved is a campaign exhibit until one of two elections fails. If both succeed, the first refused boat will show what "ordinarily" was worth.