Exit poll puts Kulbergs' United List at 35 percent, more than the next three lists combined

An exit poll released after polling stations closed at 8 p.m. on Saturday put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List far ahead in Latvia's election for the 15th Saeima, at 35 percent of the vote. Latvian Public Media, citing the SKDS survey run with Riga Stradins University and the LETA newswire, said that share was larger than the next three lists combined. A Bloomberg reading of the LTV exit poll put the same list at 35.6 percent.

The gap matters because the campaign had looked close. Reuters, reporting as voting opened, had placed the United List near 14 percent, with the Russia-friendly Sovereign Power alliance just behind. The exit poll, if it holds when the Central Election Commission finishes the count, would rewrite that picture. Kulbergs told LTV that the numbers showed people wanted change and straight talking.

Second place in the SKDS poll went to Latvia First, described by LSM as an overtly Trumpist list, on 11.3 percent. The social democratic Progressives were on 11.1 percent. The populist Sovereign Power and Young Latvians alliance was on 10.8 percent. The nationalist National Alliance stood at 8.7 percent. New Unity, the largest party in the outgoing 14th Saeima, was on 6.7 percent, which would make it the smallest party to clear the bar in the next parliament.

Latvia uses a 5 percent threshold of votes cast. On the exit poll, the Union of Greens and Farmers would miss it, at 3.7 percent. LETA's fuller breakdown, also based on the LSM, RSU and LETA survey, put For the Development of Latvia at 3.1 percent and We Change the Rules at 3.0 percent. Stability was on 1.7 percent, Rising Sun for Latvia on 1.3 percent, the Gobzems list on 0.9 percent, Harmony Centre on 0.6 percent and the New Conservative Party on 0.2 percent. Parties under 2 percent do not qualify for state funding through to the next election.

The survey spoke to more than 6,500 voters at more than 70 polling stations. About 30 percent refused to say how they had voted, the same refusal rate as in the previous election. SKDS provided the method. Official seat numbers will not exist until the commission publishes the count. Exit polls in a 100-seat parliament with an alliance ballot can move once early votes and the Riga boxes are in.

Turnout an hour after the close was about 50 percent, and LSM said that figure could be revised upward. Early voting had already taken 11 percent of the roll. In 2022 turnout was 59 percent. Regionally, Vidzeme was at 59 percent, Riga at 43 percent and Marupe at 67 percent. Polling stations had opened at 8 a.m. local time, 5 a.m. GMT. Xinhua counted 1,428 candidates for the 100 seats.

The United List is an alliance of smaller parties, not a single legal party, though it appears as one list on the ballot. Bloomberg said that together with two current coalition partners, New Unity and the National Alliance, Kulbergs' list could count on about 51 percent of the vote in the exit poll. That arithmetic is not a majority of seats. Seat allocation under the Sainte-Lague method used in Latvia can differ from the raw vote share, and a Russia-friendly list at 10.8 percent would still enter the chamber.

The vote took place with Russian drones and airspace incidents still shaping the campaign. Latvia shares a border with Russia and Belarus and hosts NATO forces. Kulbergs has run as a centrist, pro-Ukraine prime minister. A result near 35 percent would give him the first claim on forming the next government, but Latvia First and Sovereign Power would be available as pressure points if the current partners demand a high price.

Police had answered 20 election-related calls during the day, LSM reported from a linked dispatch. No result from those calls was described as disrupting the count. The commission has not published a provisional national tally. Until it does, the 35 percent figure is a survey of voters leaving stations, not a certified result.

If the official count stays near the exit poll, New Unity's fall from largest party to smallest party over the line would be the sharpest single change inside the old coalition. The Progressives, just 0.2 points behind Latvia First, would be the main left list in talks. Sovereign Power's 10.8 percent would be the largest Russia-friendly bloc projected to enter. The next concrete number is the commission's first partial count, expected overnight into Sunday.