Greer says the India deal is in the short strokes, and not imminent

United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the trade deal with India is not imminent, even though he placed the talks in what he called the short strokes. He spoke after meeting commerce minister Piyush Goyal on the sidelines of the G20 trade ministers' meeting on 1 October. Staff from both sides were still in the room, he said, because the Indian team was in the country.

Greer described the conversation as constructive. He said the two governments had identified the universe of items that are sticking points and were working on them. He said President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a constructive call on Wednesday, 30 September, US time, the first between them since Trump signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries buying Russian oil and gas. Greer added that the two leaders may speak again very soon to judge progress.

The calendar explains why not imminent cuts against the short-strokes phrase. An interim agreement was supposed to be finished by March or April 2026. Neither that interim text nor the broader bilateral trade agreement has been signed. Goyal has said in public that India will not sign until it is clear the country receives a comparative advantage over competitors, the point he says was agreed in February 2026. That condition is the Indian red line visible from this side of the table. Greer did not list the products inside his universe of sticking points.

The Russian-oil statute is the new pressure around the talks. A tariff threat of up to 100 percent on buyers of Russian oil and gas lands on India as a large purchaser of discounted Russian crude. The 30 September call happened inside that threat. Greer did not say the leaders had traded a tariff waiver for a market concession. He said the call was constructive and that another may follow. The deal, on his wording, still waits on the listed differences.

Short strokes is an American golf phrase for the last part of a hole. Used by a trade representative it means the text is late, not that a signing date exists. Imminent, which he rejected, would have meant days. The gap between those two words is the news. Markets and exporters who had treated the G20 meeting as a closing session now have a public statement that closing is not at hand.

What is known about the content is still thin. Neither side published a joint readout with tariff lines, dairy access, medical devices, or digital tax language. The February understanding Goyal cites, a comparative advantage against competitors, is a relative promise. It requires a number: a margin against another supplier into the US market. Until that margin is written down, his condition and Greer's sticking points are two descriptions of the same unfinished page.

The next dated event Greer himself offered is another Trump-Modi call. He did not give a day. The staff meetings he mentioned were underway as he spoke. A deal that misses a March-April interim target and is then described in October as not imminent has already slipped twice, once on the calendar and once in the negotiator's own adverb.

For Indian exporters the practical effect is the status quo. Existing US duties stay. The 100 percent Russian-oil authority stays on the statute book, unused or used as leverage, until someone announces a waiver or a levy. Greer's sentence does not move either. It tells both capitals that the list of differences now has a boundary, and that the boundary is not the same thing as a signature.