Exit poll puts Kulbergs' United List at 35.6 percent in the Latvian vote

An exit poll after Latvia's parliamentary election on Saturday put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List on 35.6 percent, well clear of every other list. Latvia First was next on 11.3 percent, the Progressives on 11.1, and the Sovereign Power alliance with the Young Latvians on 10.8. The National Alliance was on 8.7 percent and New Unity on 6.7. The first official results are expected on Sunday.

The poll was run by the LETA news agency, Latvian public media LSM and Stradins University, with methodological support from the SKDS centre. More than 6,500 voters were asked outside more than 70 polling stations. About 30 percent refused to say how they had voted, the same refusal rate as at the previous election. DPA and Latvian public radio carried the 35.6 percent figure. Reuters reported only that United List looked set to finish first and would still need partners. The agency did not print the percentage in the copy available on Saturday evening.

Six lists were projected to clear the 5 percent threshold and enter the 100-seat Saeima. Three were projected to miss it: the Union of Greens and Farmers on 3.7 percent, For the Development of Latvia on 3.1, and We Change the Rules on 3.0. If those numbers hold, Kulbergs would lead the largest group by a wide margin and still fall short of the 51 seats needed to govern alone. A party on 35.6 percent of the vote does not automatically receive 36 seats. Latvia uses proportional allocation across five constituencies, and the threshold removes the votes of lists that miss 5 percent before seats are shared out. A lead of this size would still leave United List short of a majority.

Two of the three parties in Kulbergs' current coalition were projected to return: the National Alliance and New Unity. That is the obvious first path to a new cabinet, if the official count matches the exit poll. Latvia First, a populist nationalist list, and the Progressives, on the left, were the next two forces. Sovereign Power, described in the campaign as pro-Russian by Reuters in pre-election coverage, was fourth on this poll. A government that includes United List, the National Alliance and New Unity would not need Sovereign Power. A government that loses one of those partners would have to look elsewhere.

The campaign was fought on security and the cost of living. Latvia is a NATO and European Union member. It borders Russia and has a large Russian-speaking minority. Airspace incursions and the war in Ukraine sat over the vote. Early voting had already produced 174,517 ballots, 11.2 percent of the roll, before election day. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time, 05:00 GMT, and closed at 8 p.m. There were 1,428 candidates for 100 seats.

Latvian exit polls have been wrong before. DPA said the projections were being treated with caution for that reason. The 30 percent who would not name a party are large enough to move a list near the threshold. New Unity on 6.7 percent and the Greens and Farmers on 3.7 are the two figures most exposed to that gap. A late swing of a few points would not threaten first place if United List is really near 35 percent. It could change who is available as a coalition partner.

Kulbergs voted in Riga with his wife Anna. The Central Election Commission has not published the official result. Until it does, the 35.6 percent figure is a survey of people leaving polling stations, not a count of ballots. The practical consequence is still clear enough to plan around. If the official numbers land near the exit poll, the next government will be built around United List, and the argument will be about which of the smaller lists cross the line and which of the current partners Kulbergs keeps. The speaker of the Saeima will open talks once the count is certified. That process does not start from the exit poll.