Ethiopia expels Eritrean diplomats as a militia claims Milazat, 20 km from Mekelle

Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations as fighting in northern Ethiopia moves toward Mekelle. On Thursday Ethiopia said it was closing its embassy in Asmara and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours. Eritrea answered by cutting all diplomatic ties. The same day, a pro-government militia said it had taken Milazat, about 20 kilometres southeast of the Tigray capital.

Ethiopia's notice accused Eritrea of direct and indirect hostility. The foreign ministry in Asmara called the expulsion of its ambassador astounding and said Ethiopia's decision left it no choice but to reciprocate. It warned of negative corollaries. The two countries fought a border war from 1998 to 2000 and restored relations only in 2018. A break this sharp returns them to the footing they had before that opening.

The Tigray Peace Forces, a militia aligned with the federal government, posted on Facebook that Milazat had fallen. Video circulated that purported to show TPF fighters in a blue truck chanting Mekelle. The BBC said it could not verify the capture. Reuters quoted two residents of Mekelle, not named, who said banks and shops were closed on Friday in expectation of fighting. More than 50 people have been killed since heavy fighting resumed in the north last week, the BBC reported.

Federal forces are fighting the Tigray People's Liberation Front and allied groups in Tigray, Afar and Amhara. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the opposition alliance. All three deny it. The accusation is the diplomatic half of the same crisis. Addis Ababa is treating the war on the ground and the embassies as one file.

Explosions were heard overnight in Addis Ababa, including near the military headquarters, hours before the embassy decision. The government has not published a damage account of those blasts. Their timing is what made them part of Thursday's story. A capital that hears explosions near the defence headquarters, and a foreign ministry that expels diplomats the next morning, are not running a contained border incident.

The geography of the militia claim is the number that matters on the ground. Milazat at 20 kilometres from Mekelle is inside the range of a short advance, not a distant front. If the claim is true, the regional capital is within a day's move of a force that is already chanting its name. If the claim is false, the Facebook post is still doing political work inside Tigray, telling residents the fight is at the edge of the city. The closed banks and shops suggest many in Mekelle are acting as if the claim could be true.

The 2018 peace between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki ended a generation of formal hostility and, for a time, put Eritrean troops on the federal side in the last Tigray war. That alignment has broken. Ethiopia now lists Eritrea among the outside backers of the rebel alliance. Eritrea denies it and has answered a diplomatic expulsion with a full cut in ties. The practical result is that there is no ambassador in either capital to carry a message if the front reaches Mekelle.

What is verified is the diplomatic break, the 48-hour expulsion order, the denial from Asmara, Khartoum and Cairo, the overnight blasts in Addis Ababa, and the shutdown of ordinary business in Mekelle. What is not verified is the fall of Milazat. The next reliable marker will be whether federal or militia forces are seen inside the regional capital, or whether the TPLF holds the roads southeast of the city. Until then the war is close enough to shut the shops, and the embassies are already closed.