Brazilians vote with Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro short of a first-round majority

Brazilians voted on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that neither Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva nor Flavio Bolsonaro was expected to finish outright. Polls closed at 5 p.m. Brasilia time, 8 p.m. GMT. If no candidate takes more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet again on 25 October.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the main challenger. Reuters reported from Brasilia and Sao Paulo that the campaign had been shaped by corruption cases, the cost of living, and claims of United States interference, with little sustained argument over the next government's fiscal path.

An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg, taken from 27 September to 2 October among 4,945 people and filed with the electoral court as BR-00999/2026, put Lula at 47 percent of valid votes and Flavio Bolsonaro at 44.1 percent. Renan Santos of Missao was on 4.6 percent, Augusto Cury of Avante on 2.1 percent, and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD on 1.4 percent. On total intention, Atlas had 46.7 for Lula and 43.8 for Flavio. The margin was one point. In a simulated runoff of valid votes, Atlas had Lula at 50.1 and Flavio at 49.9.

That is a different contest from 2022, when Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than two points in the second round. Flavio's first-round share has climbed from 33.7 percent in August, a gain of about ten points, according to the same Atlas series. Lula's disapproval in the latest wave was 52.5 percent, against approval of 46.8 percent. A lead outside the margin on Saturday does not decide a race this close once blank and null ballots are stripped out.

The ballot is larger than the presidency. Voters also choose all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the 81 Senate seats, two-thirds of the upper house. A president who wins a narrow mandate will still have to assemble a coalition in a Congress that has not been a reliable partner for either camp. Sunday's legislative count will tell the next Planalto whether it can pass a budget without buying support seat by seat.

Both leading candidates skipped the main television debates. Lula closed his campaign on Saturday with a march in Sao Paulo and told supporters he expected a first-round win, framing the vote as a choice between democracy and what he called barbarism. Flavio Bolsonaro's camp has treated Washington's pressure on Brasilia as useful leverage. Lula's supporters have treated the same pressure as outside interference in a domestic vote. Al Jazeera, citing AFP and Reuters, said neither man was likely to clear 50 percent on Sunday.

The next government inherits a high public debt and a weak growth outlook. Reuters noted that neither front-runner has put a detailed fiscal plan at the centre of the campaign. The first-round result will decide whether that argument is postponed to a 25 October runoff or settled on Sunday night. Debt service is already the binding constraint. A winner who has not said how he will slow the rise in the primary deficit will meet the same Treasury calendar either way.

Valid votes are the count the electoral court uses for the 50 percent threshold. Blank and null ballots do not help a candidate cross it. A first-round winner would need to clear that bar among valid votes alone. Atlas's valid-vote figures, taken before polling day, left both men short. Third-place Renan Santos at 4.6 percent is large enough to matter in a runoff if his voters split unevenly, and small enough that he cannot force a three-way second round.

Other governors who entered the race, including Caiado and Romeu Zema, did not break the polarised field. Each of the two leaders is rejected by roughly half the electorate, which is why a runoff can still swing on voters who dislike both. Rejection, not enthusiasm, is the variable Atlas left hanging: a candidate at 47 percent of valid votes can still lose a second round if the other half consolidates.

A Flavio Bolsonaro win would extend a run of right-wing victories in Latin America by candidates aligned with Donald Trump. A Lula win would leave Washington dealing with a government it has already clashed with on trade and security. Either way, the Chamber and Senate results will set the price of the next budget. Counting was under way as polls closed. The electoral court, not the exit polls, will say whether 25 October is required.

The practical consequence sits in the calendar. A runoff gives both campaigns three weeks and no new policy paper on the debt. A first-round decision, if one arrives against the polls, would still leave the winner negotiating with a Congress elected on the same day. The number to watch overnight is the valid-vote share, not the raw total, because that is the only figure that ends the race.