Brazil votes with Lula on 43.1 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro on 38 in the last CNT poll

Brazil votes on Sunday in a presidential first round with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, and with neither man near a first-round win on the last national poll. A CNT/MDA survey released on Saturday put Lula at 43.1 percent and Senator Bolsonaro at 38 percent. Augusto Cury was on 3.2, Ronaldo Caiado on 3, and Renan Santos on 1.5. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. MDA spoke to 2,007 people between 30 September and 2 October.

On valid votes, which drop blank and null ballots, Lula reaches 47.8 percent and Bolsonaro 42.1. A candidate needs more than 50 percent of valid votes on Sunday to win outright. Both numbers sit under that line. If no one clears it, the top two meet again on 25 October. In a runoff simulation the same poll has Lula at 47.3 and Bolsonaro at 43.1. A CNT/MDA poll on 15 September had Lula at 40.5 and Bolsonaro at 30.4 in the first round, and Lula ahead 47.3 to 40 in a runoff. The first-round gap has narrowed. The runoff gap has narrowed with it.

A Datafolha poll published on 1 October, for TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, had a similar shape: Lula 42, Bolsonaro 38, runoff 48 to 45, margin of error two points. Datafolha's previous survey, on 24 September, had been 40 to 36. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll on 29 September had the runoff as a statistical tie, Bolsonaro 47.7 to Lula 47.6. The three pollsters do not agree on the second round. They agree that Sunday is unlikely to finish the race.

Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is in prison and cannot run. The senator campaigned on Saturday in Santa Barbara d'Oeste. Lula is seeking another term for the Workers' Party. The field behind the two leaders is fragmented. Cury, Caiado and Santos together hold under 8 percent in the CNT poll. In a polarised first round, those votes matter mainly for whether they push either leader over 50 percent of valid ballots. On these numbers they do not.

The vote takes place with the United States and Australia having suspended in-person consular work in Brazil from Friday, citing security. Federal Police searches found no threat. That closure is a diplomatic fact sitting on top of an ordinary election calendar. It does not change the threshold. Fifty percent of valid votes, or a second round on the 25th.

The CNT movement since 15 September is the figure campaigns will argue over on Sunday night. Bolsonaro gained 7.6 points in the first-round reading, from 30.4 to 38. Lula gained 2.6, from 40.5 to 43.1. Part of Bolsonaro's gain is the consolidation of voters who had been elsewhere. Cury fell from 6 percent to 3.2 in the same series. A candidate who picks up voters from a minor rival is in a different position from one who is taking them from the leader. The runoff numbers show some of that gain surviving a head-to-head: Bolsonaro moved from 40 to 43.1, Lula stayed at 47.3.

Brazilian law treats a poll as a registered instrument. The Datafolha survey is filed with the electoral court as BR-08039/2026. CNT/MDA's sample of 2,007 is smaller than AtlasIntel's 5,005 from late September. A 2.2-point margin means the 5.1-point first-round gap in CNT is outside the error band, and the 4.2-point runoff gap is closer to it. AtlasIntel's tie sits inside its own band. Sunday's count will retire all three. If the first round ends without a majority, the three weeks to 25 October will be fought on the runoff question these polls already disagree about.