Bosnia's early count gives the three presidency seats to Bećirović, Filipović and Cvijanović

Bosnia and Herzegovina voted on Sunday for the three-member presidency, the state House of Representatives, and the legislatures of both entities. The Central Election Commission said turnout was 41.52 percent, or 1,414,007 voters on the central roll. After about 80 percent of polling stations, the early presidency count pointed to Denis Bećirović, Darijana Filipović and Željka Cvijanović.

Commission official Kalaba gave the Bosniak-seat figures as Bećirović 164,000, Bakir Izetbegović 148,000, Semir Efendić 110,000 and Fahrudin Radončić 9,320. On the Croat seat, Darijana Filipović of the HDZ BiH-led coalition had 92,000, Slaven Kovačević 55,000 and Zdenko Lučić 44,000. On the Serb seat, Cvijanović had 213,000, Marinko Božović 102,000 and Nebojša Vukanović 67,000. Avaz published those station-level totals from the commission briefing.

bne IntelliNews, using a later slice with 92.3 percent of stations processed for the state House of Representatives, put the Bosniak nationalist Party of Democratic Action first on 19.89 percent, or 240,762 ballots. Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats was second on 16.44 percent. The Social Democratic Party was third on 9.39 percent. The HDZ BiH coalition was fourth on 8 percent. A list led by Republika Srpska opposition figure Draško Stanivuković took 5.99 percent.

The same later cut had Bećirović at 38.03 percent for the Bosniak seat, ahead of SDA leader Izetbegović on 34.25 percent. Cvijanović was on 55.6 percent for the Serb seat after 80 percent of stations. Filipović was on 48.19 percent for the Croat seat. Dodik said his party had won across levels of government, including the race for president of Republika Srpska. Those claims sit on preliminary numbers. The commission has not certified a result.

The presidency is three people, one Bosniak, one Croat, one Serb, elected by separate electorates. A lead in one race does not transfer to another. Bećirović, who ran with the United for the State coalition and has argued for European Union and NATO integration, can finish first among Bosniak voters and still sit beside Cvijanović, the SNSD candidate, and Filipović of HDZ BiH. That is the structure the early count is reproducing, not a new alignment.

Turnout at 41.52 percent is low for a general election that fills the state parliament, the Federation legislature's 98 seats, the Republika Srpska presidency, and that entity's 83-seat assembly. A low poll magnifies party machines. SDA's 240,762 ballots were enough for first place in the state house on the later cut, even while its leader trailed Bećirović for the Bosniak presidency seat. The party and its leader are not moving together.

The Croat seat is the one outside observers watch for a blocking vote. Filipović's 92,000 against Kovačević's 55,000, if it holds, keeps the seat with HDZ BiH. A Croat member from that party can stall decisions that require consensus in the presidency. The early gap is large enough to call, and not large enough to ignore the uncounted fifth of stations.

Dodik's declaration covers the entity as well as the state. SNSD's candidate for Republika Srpska president, Savo Minić, was reported leading by more than 30,000 votes in one early note from party celebrations. Entity control is what has let Dodik argue with state institutions for years. A hold there matters more to day-to-day authority than a second-place finish in the state house.

Nothing in the Sunday night figures is final. The useful split is already visible: Bećirović ahead of Izetbegović for the Bosniak chair, HDZ ahead for the Croat chair, SNSD ahead for the Serb chair and the entity. Certification will say whether the 16,000-vote gap between Bećirović and Izetbegović survives the last stations.