United List takes 42 Saeima seats, the strongest Latvian result since independence

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List has won Latvia's 15th Saeima election with 35.3 percent of the vote and 42 of 100 seats, the strongest result for any party since the restoration of independence. LETA's count, updated on Monday, put the result beyond the previous post-1991 highs: Latvian Way's 36 seats in 1993, Unity's 33 in 2010, and Harmony's 31 in the 2011 snap election.

The vote was on Saturday 3 October. Only six lists cleared the 5 percent threshold. Latvia First, led by Ainārs Šlesers, finished second with 13.1 percent and 17 seats. The Sovereign Power and Young Latvians alliance took 11.74 percent and 15 seats. The National Alliance received 8.91 percent and 10 seats, the Progressives 7.81 percent and nine, and New Unity 6.34 percent and seven.

The arithmetic of a majority

Forty-two seats is not a majority. Kulbergs still has to assemble one. The cleanest arithmetic on the published numbers uses his current partners. United List, the National Alliance and New Unity together hold 59 seats, a working majority that does not need the Union of Greens and Farmers. United List and the National Alliance alone would hold 52, a narrower majority. Neither arrangement has been signed. They are seat counts, not a government.

The Union of Greens and Farmers is the first established force to fall short. It took 4.41 percent. We Are Changing the Rules took 3.43 percent and Latvia's Development 2.18 percent. Lists above 2 percent remain eligible for state funding even though they will have no seats. Eight lists in all finished below the threshold.

Šlesers' Latvia First and the Sovereign Power and Young Latvians alliance together hold 32 seats. That is a large opposition bloc, and it is the bloc Politico identified with opposition to restrictive tariffs on Russia. Kulbergs' list ran more than 20 points ahead of Latvia First. Pre-election polling had not pointed to a gap of that size.

What the result does to the outgoing coalition

Two partners in the outgoing coalition, the National Alliance and New Unity, cleared 5 percent and return. The Greens and Farmers do not. A pro-Ukraine majority can be built from the three lists that have already governed together, and it can be built without the party that just lost its seats. That is the concrete change from Saturday, not a claim about the next cabinet's programme.

Kulbergs remains prime minister while talks run. The Saeima has 100 seats. A majority is 51. The 59-seat path has an eight-seat cushion. The 52-seat path has one. Either number can break if a partner walks, which is why the seat table does not name the next government.

The comparison that makes 42 unusual

Latvian elections since independence have usually produced fragmented Saeimas. A winning list in the low 20s, and a chamber with six or seven groups, has been the ordinary result. Forty-two seats from 35.3 percent is a different shape. It is still short of single-party rule, and the 5 percent threshold did its usual work of clearing smaller lists out. It does mean the prime minister's list can lose one partner and still look for a majority, which the winners of 2018 and 2022 could not do from their own totals.

The open question is which of the two published majorities Kulbergs will try to lock first, and whether Latvia First's 17 seats and the Sovereign Power alliance's 15 become a coordinated opposition on Russia policy or remain separate lists with a shared number.