TVK takes Madurantakam by 20,040 votes and Dharapuram by 9,471, returning two former AIADMK MLAs

Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam won both assembly by-elections counted in Tamil Nadu on Friday, returning two former AIADMK legislators under a party that has been in government for four months. In Madurantakam, Maragatham Kumaravel polled 74,048 votes and beat DMK candidate E. Paranthaman, who received 54,008, by 20,040. AIADMK's Kanitha Sampath finished third with 47,450. In Dharapuram, P. Sathyabama polled 66,841 and beat DMK's Suganya, on 57,370, by 9,471. AIADMK's K. Bhanumathi, who had led in early rounds, slipped to third with 45,280.

The same seats, a different party

Kumaravel and Sathyabama won these constituencies on AIADMK tickets in the April assembly election. They resigned as MLAs and joined TVK, which forced by-elections five months later. The voters who returned them on Friday were returning the same names on a different symbol. That is the fact Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay's party can point to, and the fact AIADMK has to explain. A legislator who defects and then wins the resulting by-election has converted a resignation into a mandate. One who loses has handed the seat to a rival. Neither of these two lost.

The margins are not the same kind of result. Madurantakam's 20,040 is a clear lead over DMK, with AIADMK a further 6,500 behind in third. Dharapuram's 9,471 is a count that moved during the day. Bhanumathi led early and finished third. Suganya, for the DMK, was 9,471 short at the end and 12,090 ahead of the AIADMK candidate. A seat that changes order between rounds is a closer electorate than the final margin alone suggests.

What four months in office is being asked to prove

TVK formed a government after the April election. These two by-elections are the first time that government has had to defend seats it did not win under its own symbol in the general election. It won them with candidates the previous AIADMK electorate already knew. Vijay has treated the results as an endorsement. DMK leaders have treated them as a sign of the old AIADMK vote splitting, not as a new coalition. Both readings use the same numbers. The third-place AIADMK totals, 47,450 and 45,280, are large enough that a reunited opposition vote would have threatened both TVK winners. The votes were not reunited.

Four more seats in the state are vacant after similar resignations and switches. Friday does not fill them. It does set a pattern the next writs will be read against: a defector standing for TVK, a DMK candidate in second, an AIADMK candidate in third. If that order repeats, the government's majority grows by recruitment as well as by the April result. If Dharapuram's early lead for AIADMK repeats and holds, the pattern breaks.

The two totals worth filing

Madurantakam: TVK 74,048, DMK 54,008, AIADMK 47,450, margin 20,040. Dharapuram: TVK 66,841, DMK 57,370, AIADMK 45,280, margin 9,471. Both winners are the MLAs who resigned the same seats in the months after April. The count returns them to the House. The next test is the four vacancies still open, not a retelling of these two.