Türkiye plans a 229 percent rise in defence spending across 2027-2029

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said on 6 September that Türkiye will raise defence spending by 229 percent over the three years of the new Medium-Term Program for 2027-2029. He spoke at the Presidential Complex in Ankara while presenting the economic road map. "In the defence industry, we aim for a Türkiye that develops its own technology and produces high added value," he said. "We are increasing defence spending by 229 percent."

That increase is the largest among seven priority lines in the program. Social housing is down for a 150 percent rise, mineral exploration 139 percent, industrial infrastructure 54 percent, railways 49 percent, health 43 percent and food-supply security 42 percent. Defence24, citing the same presentation, treated 229 percent as a cumulative target to 2029 rather than a single-year jump.

The program also resets the near-term macro numbers. Growth for 2026 was cut from 3.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Year-end inflation was raised from 16 percent to 28.4 percent. Growth targets then climb to 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028 and 5 percent in 2029. Inflation is projected at 16 percent in 2027, 9 percent in 2028 and 8 percent in 2029. Yilmaz said inflation had already turned down from a peak of 75.5 percent in May 2024.

SIPRI put Türkiye's military spending at $30 billion in 2025, 18th in the world. The new money is meant to fund domestic programmes rather than off-the-shelf imports. Turkish coverage named mass production of the TF-Kaan fighter, first deliveries of the Bayraktar Kizilelma unmanned combat aircraft, and more than ten Altay tanks for the land forces as projects that would draw on the extra budget. The MTP text also groups semiconductors, artificial intelligence, health technology, critical minerals, nuclear and hydrogen work as strategic files.

A 229 percent rise on a $30 billion base would be an enormous cash call if it were applied in one step to the SIPRI number. The government has not published the exact starting appropriation or the year-by-year path in the remarks released on Sunday. What it has published is the ranking: defence first, housing second, mining third.

That ranking will collide with the inflation path. A state that still expects 28.4 percent inflation at the end of 2026 and wants 8 percent by 2029 is asking the same budget to buy fighters, houses and mines while bringing prices down. The MTP is a statement of intent. The 2027 budget law will be the first document that turns 229 percent into lira.

Until that law appears, the usable facts are the ones Yilmaz spoke: defence is the top percentage increase, growth this year is slower than planned, and inflation this year is higher than planned. The rest is a target list for 2029.