Trump signs Graham Act giving Washington a 100 percent tariff lever on Russian oil buyers

President Donald Trump signed H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, on Friday, 18 September. The White House statement said the statute authorises and expands sanctions, tariffs and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran.

The provision that now sits over New Delhi and Beijing is narrow and mechanical. Within 30 days of signature, the president is required to impose duties of up to 100 percent on goods imported from countries that rank among the five largest purchasers of Russian crude oil or natural gas by total volume during the 12 months before enactment. India and China are among those purchasers. The law does not name them. The volume ranking does.

That is not an automatic 100 percent tariff on every Indian or Chinese export. The statute creates a legal pathway and leaves the president to set which countries are listed, which rates apply, and which provisions are waived. An exception exists for countries that import less than 15 percent of Russia’s natural gas exports and have taken significant steps to cut those purchases. Crude oil volumes, not gas, are the relevant test for India.

The Senate passed the bill 86-11 on 7 August. The House passed it 262-159 earlier this week. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who spent more than a year negotiating the package, died in July. The law carries his name.

What the statute actually targets

Beyond the tariff clause, the Act reaches Russian officials, banks, energy and defence industries, and the so-called shadow fleet of tankers used to move oil outside Western insurance and price-cap rules. It also authorises sanctions on foreign individuals and entities that help Russian energy production or help Moscow evade existing restrictions. Iran sanctions are extended for five years.

Implementation is discretionary. That is the point of information that much of the first-day coverage skipped. A White House that wants a deal with a particular buyer can delay listing, lower the rate, or grant a waiver. A White House that wants leverage in a separate trade talk can treat the ranking as a clock. The ranking itself will depend on the 12-month volume series the administration chooses to certify. Different agencies have published slightly different league tables for 2025-26 Russian crude sales. China has usually led. India has usually sat second or third, depending on whether seaborne barrels, pipeline volumes and product re-exports are counted together.

Indian oil purchases from Russia have already fallen after earlier US curbs, according to trade data cited in New Delhi this week. That decline is the factual record the administration will have to measure against the statutory 12-month window. A country that has cut volumes late in the year can still rank in the top five if earlier months were large.

New Delhi’s first reply

Union Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh said on Saturday in Lucknow that India will keep an independent foreign policy and take decisions based on the country’s interests. He did not announce a change in crude sourcing. He did not concede that India will be listed.

The textile industry has already done the arithmetic that the ministry has not. CITI, the industry body, warned on Saturday that tariffs of up to 100 percent on major buyers of Russian energy could make Indian textiles uncompetitive in the United States, the largest export market for that sector. Textiles are not the only exposure. Pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, and some engineering goods also depend on US demand. A 100 percent duty on those lines would be a different shock from the existing tariff schedule.

China faces the same statutory test and a larger crude volume. Beijing has not issued a detailed response tied to H.R. 5334. The G20 finance track in Asheville already showed the split: 19 members backed language on cheap exports, China objected.

How this sits beside other US tools

The Act arrives in the same week as a separate proclamation that keeps the $100,000 H-1B entry payment in force through 21 September 2027, and days before Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington. It also sits beside the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, which the State Department on Friday used as the bookkeeping vehicle for a $2.68 billion air-defence sale to Kyiv. The Graham Act is the pressure instrument on Moscow’s energy customers. The sale is the supply instrument for Ukraine’s air war. They are not the same policy, but they share a week and a president.

Whether India actually faces a 100 percent tariff will be decided in the listing decision after the 30-day clock, not in Friday’s signature. The ranking, the waiver language and the rate are the three numbers that matter from here.