Trump says the United States will not strike Iran before the 3 November midterms

President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November. In a post on Truth Social he wrote that the administration was having productive discussions with Tehran and that his main goal was to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. He added that the blockade of Iranian ports would remain in full force.

The statement came after reports that the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop options for strikes that could be carried out before the election. The Atlantic reported that Trump had requested such options. Brent crude rose more than 5 percent, above $105 a barrel, after that report. Trump's post on Thursday reversed the market move. On Friday, after he also announced a deal for Russian diesel, equity markets rose.

American officials told the New York Times that the military is still preparing options to restart major combat operations against Iran, even as Trump has shown ambivalence about doing so. In recent months the national security team and the Pentagon have presented him with five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis. He has rejected each one. The US military response to Iranian attacks on shipping has been more limited in recent weeks than in the early months of the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on 28 February.

Washington and Tehran have continued indirect talks, mediated by Qatar, aimed at ending the seven-month conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A preliminary understanding reached in June opened a path for negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme, then collapsed when Iran resumed strikes amid disagreements over control of the waterway. Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait last month. His description of the current talks as productive has not been matched by a published text or a date for a next round.

The domestic calendar is the clearest part of the decision. The midterms are 26 days away. High fuel prices, driven in part by the disruption of Gulf supplies, are a liability for Republicans. A decision to rule out new strikes until after the vote removes one source of further price spikes, at least from direct US action. It does not remove the Houthi attacks on Saudi airports that killed three people in Riyadh on Thursday, nor the Iranian strikes on tankers that have continued.

Trump's post leaves the blockade in place and leaves the military planning process intact. Officials who described the five rejected proposals said the options remain on the table for after the election. The practical result for the next three weeks is a pause in direct US strikes, continued economic pressure through the port blockade, and indirect talks whose content has not been made public. Whether that combination produces a reopening of Hormuz or a return to major combat after 3 November is the question the announcement does not answer.