Sweden's centre-left leads by three seats with overseas ballots still out
With about 95 percent of districts counted, Magdalena Andersson's bloc has 176 of 349 Riksdag seats against Ulf Kristersson's 173. Wednesday's remaining count can still flip the result.
Stockholm2 min read
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Sweden's centre-left opposition held a three-seat lead on Monday after Sunday's general election, according to the election authority's running count. Magdalena Andersson's four-party bloc was projected at 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's four-party right-wing bloc was projected at 173.
SVT's public tally at midday Monday, with 6,279 of 6,626 districts in, put the Social Democrats at 28.1 percent (100 seats, down seven), the Moderates at 19.9 percent (70 seats), and the Sweden Democrats at 17.6 percent (62 seats, down about 11). The Left Party rose to 8.2 percent and 29 seats. The Centre Party stood at 7.1 percent and 25 seats. The Christian Democrats had 6.2 percent and 22 seats. The Greens had 6.1 percent and 22 seats. The Liberals had 5.4 percent and 19 seats.
The two blocs were separated by 0.45 percentage points on Monday morning. POLITICO, citing the same count, put the raw gap at about 28,000 votes, with roughly 200,000 ballots, including overseas votes, still due by Wednesday. In 2022 an early centre-left lead in the same range did not survive the late count. Kristersson did not concede on Sunday night.
Andersson told supporters that if the figures held, Sweden would get a new government. Forming one is a separate problem. The Centre Party has said it will not sit in a cabinet that includes the Left Party and would rather face an extra election. The Left Party has demanded seats at the table. SVT has called that pairing an impossible equation. Andersson would be prime minister in any centre-left outcome. The other three parties have not agreed a governing formula.
A confirmed opposition win would interrupt four years in which Sweden tightened asylum rules and moved from one of Europe's more open migration systems to one of the harder ones. The Sweden Democrats, founded in the 1980s and led for more than two decades by Jimmie Akesson, had hoped to enter government for the first time if Kristersson's side held. The preliminary drop in both vote share and seats would be the first clear reverse of that party's long rise under Akesson.
Foreign policy is less in play. Both blocs have backed NATO membership and military aid to Ukraine. The live argument is domestic: migration, nuclear power, taxes on high wealth, and how much of the Tidö agreement's crime and asylum package survives a change of government.
The Social Democrats remain the largest single party, as they have for a century, even after losing 2.3 points. The Moderates gained 0.8 points under Kristersson. Gains on the left came from the Left and the Greens, not from Andersson's own list. That distribution is why cabinet arithmetic is tighter than the headline 176-173 split suggests.
Wednesday's count of remaining districts and overseas ballots is the next hard date. Until then both leaders are treating the result as provisional. If the three-seat gap holds, Andersson starts talks. If it narrows to a tie or flips, Kristersson can argue that the Tidö parties still have a path, including a first Sweden Democrat presence in cabinet. The Riksdag has 349 seats. One hundred and seventy-five is the majority line. There is no spare seat in the present projection.
