Sweden’s centre-left holds a three-seat lead as late ballots wait until Wednesday

Sweden’s centre-left opposition held a narrow lead on Tuesday in the count from Sunday’s parliamentary election, with late postal and overseas ballots still to be added on Wednesday. With about 95 percent of districts reported, parties backing Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson were projected to take 176 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing bloc was on 173. The gap in raw votes was in the tens of thousands, small enough that the remaining ballots could still change a seat.

Andersson told supporters on Sunday night that if the result held, Sweden would get a new government. Her Social Democrats remain the largest party, with a preliminary share near 28 percent, down about 2.3 points from 2022 and among the party’s weaker modern results. The Moderate Party, Kristersson’s own, rose slightly to about 20 percent and overtook the Sweden Democrats for second place. The Sweden Democrats, who had been the second force after 2022, fell to about 17.5 or 17.6 percent, a drop of roughly three points and the clearest loss of the night.

The left-leaning bloc is a four-party sum: Social Democrats, Centre Party, Left Party and Greens. Together they had about 49.5 percent of the vote in the partial count. Kristersson’s Tidö grouping of Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals was near 49 percent. The Left and the Greens each gained more than a point. The Centre Party gained a fraction. Those small rises, not a Social Democrat surge, produced the three-seat edge.

Forming a government from that edge is a separate problem. The Centre Party has ruled out a formal coalition with the Left. Andersson will have to find a formula that keeps the arithmetic without a cabinet that the Centre will not join. Crime and immigration split the same four parties. The outgoing government tightened migration rules with Sweden Democrat support. Andersson has not promised a return to the older open stance. Incoming ministers, if she gets that far, would inherit those statutes.

Final official results are expected in about a week. Wednesday’s supplementary count is the first test of whether 176 to 173 survives contact with ballots that arrived after election night. If it does, Sweden will have voted against the recent European pattern of rightward shifts without voting for a simple change of course. The far right is down. It is not out. The centre-left is ahead. It does not yet have a cabinet.