Saxony-Anhalt votes with polls open until 18:00 and AfD near 40 percent in the last surveys

Saxony-Anhalt elects a new Landtag on Sunday, 6 September. About 1.79 million people are called to vote. Polling stations opened at 08:00 and close at 18:00. First television projections from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen are due after the close. Fifteen party lists were cleared by the state election committee on 24 July.

The last FGW survey, published on 3 September, put the AfD at 41 percent, the CDU at 23, the Left at 11.5, the SPD at 8.5, the Greens at 6, the BSW at 4 and the FDP at 3. INSA on 2 September had the AfD at 43 and the CDU at 22. In 2021 the CDU won 37.1 percent and the AfD 20.8. A doubling of the AfD share, if it arrives, would be the largest single-night swing in the state's recent history.

Minister-President Sven Schulze leads the CDU ticket. He became party chair in the state in 2018-19, served as economics minister, and took the premiership in January 2026 after Reiner Haseloff stood aside. He was confirmed as lead candidate with 90.09 percent at a meeting in Oschersleben on 1 November 2025. He currently heads a CDU-SPD-FDP coalition.

The AfD's lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, a Landtag member since 2016 and co-chair of the party group since 2022. A Magdeburg party meeting chose him with 98.3 percent of delegate votes on 23 May 2025, replacing Oliver Kirchner. The state's office for the protection of the constitution has classed the AfD association in Saxony-Anhalt as confirmed right-wing extremist since 2023. Other parties still refuse a coalition with it. That refusal is the governing problem if the AfD finishes first and short of a majority, or first with a majority.

Direct-preference polls split. FGW on 3 September had Schulze at 48 percent and Siegmund at 34 as preferred minister-president, with 18 percent unsure. INSA on 2 September had Siegmund at 39 and Schulze at 28, with 33 percent for neither. Voters can like Schulze and still give the second vote to another list. That split is why a 41 percent party lead does not automatically produce a premier.

The Landtag has 83 seats. An AfD score near 40 percent would make every other arithmetic ugly. CDU plus Left plus SPD plus Greens may or may not add up, depending on who clears 5 percent. The FDP and BSW are both on the edge in the last polls. A missed threshold changes the coalition table more than a two-point move at the top.

Haseloff's old majority is gone as a living option. Schulze has to beat the surveys or find partners among parties that spent the campaign promising not to sit with the AfD. Siegmund has to convert a polling lead into seats and then into a claim to govern that the rest of the chamber has already rejected in public.

Sunday night's first projection at 18:00 is the number that ends the speculation. Until then the only facts are the opening hours, the size of the electorate, the last published polls and the coalition veto that every non-AfD party has already spoken. Magdeburg will count. The rest of Germany will watch the count because a 41 percent result in this state would not stay in this state.