Saudi East-West pipeline stays shut as Brent trades near 108 dollars

Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline remained closed on Monday after drone strikes last Thursday in the Riyadh and Medina regions. The Ministry of Energy shut the line on Friday as a precaution. It reported injuries and said emergency teams had secured the pipe. It did not publish a repair timetable or a damage map.

Brent rose as much as 3.7 percent on Monday before easing to about $107.95 a barrel at 8:05 a.m. UAE time, according to The National. West Texas Intermediate was near $103.19. Those prints sit on top of a year in which crude has climbed sharply as the war around Iran cut Hormuz traffic.

What the line carries

The pipeline runs about 1,200 kilometres from the Eastern Province fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Nameplate capacity is often given as five million barrels a day in recent use and up to seven million barrels a day at full pump. Since Hormuz was disrupted, it has been the main way Saudi crude reaches a sea that still leads to Asia via Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, or to the Mediterranean through Egypt.

Three industry sources told Reuters that Yanbu tanks can keep exports going for five to seven days with the pipeline off. A fourth source said Saudi Arabia also holds stocks at Egypt's Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean that can cover customers for several more days. After that window, cargoes stop unless the line restarts or another route opens.

Repair guesses differ. One Reuters source said five to six weeks. Another said partial pumping could resume sooner. The government media office and the energy ministry did not answer Reuters when asked for comment. Al Jazeera, working from the same reporting, put the volume at risk at up to 5 percent of global supply if the outage lasts. Other desks used 4 percent.

Two chokepoints at once

Hormuz normally moves about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. With that strait constrained, the East-West line and the Red Sea became the workaround. The Red Sea is now a second problem. Houthi forces took Mokha and Mayun last week and, on Monday, Greater and Lesser Hanish. They have also claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites. China called strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure unacceptable.

Oman postponed a Salalah meeting that was meant to discuss Hormuz routing. That delay does not restart the Saudi pipe. It does mean there is no Gulf-Iran talk this week about an alternative sea lane while the land lane is dark.

Ahmad Assiri at Pepperstone told The National the closure removes a major Gulf outlet at a time when Hormuz is already impaired. European gas prices also jumped, by as much as 3.8 percent on one Bloomberg tally cited in trade press.

The clock in Yanbu

Five to seven days of port stocks is a short fuse. If the ministry restores even partial flow this week, the 4 percent global-supply warning stays theoretical. If the line needs weeks of welding and the Houthis keep pressure on Red Sea traffic, buyers in Asia will bid for barrels from the Americas, West Africa and any Gulf cargo that can still sail.

The verified official fact on Monday is narrow. The pipeline is shut. People were injured on Thursday. Teams are assessing the line. Every number about weeks, tanks and global percentages comes from traders and unnamed officials, not from a Saudi statement. Those numbers still set the price, because the market has to plan cargoes before Riyadh publishes a restart date.