Saudi East-West pipeline outage puts Yanbu exports on a short clock

Saudi Arabia is running its Red Sea crude exports off stored oil after drones forced a shutdown of the East-West pipeline, the 1,200 kilometre line that has carried most of the kingdom's wartime barrels around the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

The Energy Ministry said late on Friday, 11 September, that it had suspended operations as a precaution after multiple attacks the previous day in the Riyadh and Medina regions. Officials reported injuries and damage to infrastructure. They did not give a restart date.

Satellite photographs released on Sunday night by Vantor showed a pumping station at al-Mesabaah charred after the strike. Saudi authorities traced the drones to Maysan province in southeastern Iraq, an area where Iran-aligned armed groups have operated for years. Iran's foreign ministry denied any role on Monday. No group has claimed the attack. U.S. President Donald Trump has blamed Iran-backed militias inside Iraq.

What the line actually moved

The pipeline links production in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Nameplate pumping capacity is about 7 million barrels a day. In practice, the wartime flow has been lower.

Rystad Energy said on Monday that an average of 2.6 million to 4 million barrels a day moved through the line and out of Yanbu since late August. Four million barrels is about 4 percent of global supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi output itself has already slipped. The IEA put August production near 6 million barrels a day, down from nearly 10 million in September 2025.

The line mattered because Hormuz tanker traffic has been badly disrupted since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran opened in February. For six months the East-West system was the main workaround that kept some Saudi crude moving to Europe and Asia without passing the strait.

How long the tanks last

Johannes Rauball, senior crude analyst at Kpler, told CNN that inventories at Yanbu hold around 15 million barrels. At recent withdrawal rates that is roughly four days before the tanks run dry. Janiv Shah of Rystad put time-to-depletion at five to seven days. Three industry sources quoted by The Guardian gave the same five-to-seven-day window and added that Riyadh will run out of export stocks if pumping does not resume within days.

Repair estimates diverge. People familiar with the damage told the Wall Street Journal that partial operations could resume within days, while full restoration of damaged pumping stations could take six to eight weeks. Other sources speaking to Reuters put repairs at five to six weeks. Two regional officials told the Associated Press that three to five weeks is more likely if the stations suffered structural or electrical damage.

Saudi officials have not confirmed any of those figures. The ministry said emergency and technical teams were securing the line and checking safety.

Prices on Monday

Brent rose as much as 3.7 percent on Monday before settling near $107.95 a barrel around 8.05 a.m. UAE time, according to The National. West Texas Intermediate gained about 3.1 percent to $103.19. Capital Economics wrote that as much as 4 percent of world supply could leave the market if the shutdown lasts.

The timing compounds other cuts. Houthi forces seized Greater and Lesser Hanish in the southern Red Sea on 14 September, tightening the Bab el-Mandeb lane. Gulf states postponed planned Hormuz talks with Iran the same week after Houthi ballistic missile attacks on Saudi Arabia. The two escape valves that kept Gulf crude moving, the strait and the Red Sea bypass, are both under pressure at once.

Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, said the closure removed a major outlet for Gulf crude when alternative routes were already strained. Pre-closure comments that the line supplied six to seven million barrels a day overstate recent wartime flows, but even the lower Rystad range is large enough to tighten diesel and gasoline markets that have already printed record U.S. pump prices this month.

What buyers will watch this week

The immediate question is whether Yanbu loadings continue at the recent rate or step down as tanks empty. European and Asian refiners that switched to Red Sea Saudi grades after Hormuz tightened now face a second rerouting problem. If pumping stays off through late September, those cargoes disappear from the prompt market rather than arriving late.

A second question is political. Riyadh asked Washington for more military help last week after Houthi advances in Yemen. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met the U.S. commander responsible for the region as the pipeline damage became public. Any U.S. response inside Iraq would sit on top of an already wide war.

The third watch item is official language from the Energy Ministry. A restart notice, even at reduced rates, would change the four-day arithmetic at Yanbu. Silence through the middle of the week would tell buyers that the satellite images of the burned station are a better guide than the ministry's first, thin statement.