Polling Aggregators Give Democrats 79 Percent Chance of Senate Majority on Election Eve

One day before the November 3 midterm elections, the Vote-Scope aggregator assigns Democrats a 79 percent probability of winning a Senate majority and projects them at 54 seats with a range of 49 to 56. Republicans are projected at 46 seats with an 11 percent chance of holding the majority. The figures draw on 602 polls and 50,000 simulations updated through November 1.

The current Senate composition is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Control requires 51 seats. Vote-Scope lists six of the 35 races as toss-ups. Tight contests include Iowa, where Democrats lead by a narrow margin, Texas, Alaska, Maine, and Kansas. In Michigan the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds a lead in recent surveys over Republican Mike Rogers, despite the endorsement of Rogers by Democratic Representative Haley Stevens.

Polymarket prices a Democratic Senate majority at 72 percent. Separate polling averages from Call the Map show Democratic leads in Iowa (D+0.6), Kansas (D+1.8), Maine (D+2.5), Michigan (D+3.6), Ohio (D+3.4), and Texas (D+2.7) as of the November 1 update.

A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that sought to block certification of Alaska's Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola. Another ruling ordered the administration to halt a pressure campaign against election officials nationwide. President Trump campaigned in Iowa on November 1 for Republican Ashley Hinson, who holds a slim lead in that state's Senate contest.

House projections also favor Democrats taking the majority, though the precise seat count remains within the margin of error in several districts. Polling firms have not released final same-day surveys as of the morning of November 2. Turnout models will determine whether the projected Democratic advantage materializes once polls close on Tuesday evening.

The race in Michigan has drawn particular attention after Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, endorsed the Republican candidate. El-Sayed's campaign reported raising $1.2 million in the days after the endorsement. Final results will not be available until after polls close, beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern on November 3.