Pentagon studies pulling 25,000 to 40,000 US troops out of Europe

The Pentagon is weighing options that would remove at least 25,000 American troops from Europe and, in one scenario, as many as 40,000, according to officials who spoke to NBC News. About 80,000 US personnel are now on the continent, including some 10,000 in Poland. A cut at the high end would take the presence down by half. A cut at the low end would take away about a third.

No decision has been taken. The work sits inside a six-month Department of Defense review of aviation, naval and ground forces in Europe that began in June. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who commands US European Command and serves as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, was expected to give Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth an initial assessment on Friday. A final recommendation is due to Hegseth on 6 November, after which any plan would go to President Donald Trump.

Germany, Italy and Spain host some of the largest US concentrations and would absorb most of a withdrawal, the officials said. Some units and capabilities could instead move toward NATO’s eastern flank, closer to Russia. Aircraft, ships and other equipment are part of the same review, not only people.

Hegseth has described the goal as a NATO in which Europe takes primary responsibility for conventional defence on its own continent. The administration has already ordered earlier reductions, including about 5,000 troops out of Germany earlier in 2026. Trump ordered a withdrawal of roughly 12,000 from Germany in 2020 during his first term.

If the larger option is chosen, it would be the biggest cut in the US European footprint since the drawdowns of the 1990s. Allies have told Washington they worry about the effect on deterrence while Russia continues its war in Ukraine and while the United States is also fighting a war with Iran. Those two conflicts pull US attention and munitions in different directions. A smaller permanent presence in Germany and Italy would make reinforcement of the eastern flank slower unless stocks and reception facilities are built first.

Grynkewich wears both a US and a NATO hat. His paper to Hegseth has to describe American force design and alliance politics at the same time. Reuters had previously reported that the review would produce at least four force-disposition options by 6 November. NBC’s sources put numbers on two of those options: 25,000 and 40,000.

Poland’s 10,000 American troops are a separate political fact. Trump said this week that “major progress” had been made toward a US base in Poland. A review that thins Germany, Italy and Spain while adding infrastructure farther east would match that language. A review that simply brings units home would not.

Canada is running its own European bet on the same weekend. Gen. Jennie Carignan faces Germany’s Gen. Carsten Breuer on Saturday in a secret ballot for chair of NATO’s Military Committee. A Canadian win would put Ottawa in a senior military post just as Washington talks about doing less of the conventional work.

The numbers in the NBC report are planning figures, not orders. They will move if Hegseth or Trump wants a different signal before November. What will not move is the calendar. Six months from June ends in early December. The 6 November memo is the date that turns a study into a recommendation the president can accept or reject.