Nepal puts flood reconstruction at $4 billion to $5 billion, a tenth of output

Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle told Reuters on Saturday that Nepal will need $4 billion to $5 billion to rebuild after Wednesday's ice-and-rock flood on the Tibet border. He called the figure an initial estimate. Loss and damage assessments are still running. The Straits Times noted that the range is close to a tenth of a $45 billion economy.

Wagle compared the bill with the 2015 earthquake. That shock cost about $9 billion to rebuild, killed nearly 9,000 people and destroyed more than half a million homes. He said this flood should cost less. He did not walk through the arithmetic. The 2015 quake hit the Kathmandu valley and a wide belt of housing. Wednesday's torrent followed river corridors. It erased towns, bridges and powerhouses in a narrower band, which is why the cash ask can be smaller even while the death list is still climbing.

Nepal Police told AFP the toll inside Nepal had reached 616 by Saturday, up from 553 on Friday. Nearly 2,000 people remain missing on the Nepalese side. Chinese state television listed five dead and 558 missing in Gyirong on the Tibetan bank of the same river system. The glacier collapse sent rock, ice, mud and water down the Bhote Koshi and into the Trishuli. School buildings, hospitals, hydropower plants and nearly two dozen bridges went with it.

Wagle's number matters because hydropower is not a side sector here. The Straits Times reported that damaged plants account for more than 12 percent of national generating capacity. Remittances and tourism carry the rest of the external accounts. A flood that cuts both the grid and the road to the Chinese border hits the three legs the budget actually stands on. Bailey bridges, which Kathmandu has already asked India and China to send, are the cheap way back to a customs post. Replacing a powerhouse is not.

Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal told Reuters that Nepal wants specialised help rather than a general foreign search force. Tunnel rescue at wrecked hydro plants, DNA identification and cold storage for morgues sit at the top of that list. Kathmandu reversed a Wednesday ban on foreign teams after governments pressed over missing nationals. Help is still limited to those technical lanes. An 11-member Indian medical and tunnel team landed on the third Indian Air Force assistance flight. New Delhi has also offered NDRF units and is waiting for a nod.

Prime Minister Balen Shah said more than 15,000 security personnel are on the ground and that 4,451 people have been pulled out. Helicopters from the army and the private sector are flying shuttles. The Bhote Koshi rose again after two new lakes formed above the collapse, which is why rescue paused and then restarted. China's water ministry estimated 1.5 to 2 million cubic metres already ponded and warned of a breach. That risk is why Wagle's reconstruction number can move before the week is out.

India's external affairs ministry still lists hundreds of Indian nationals as uncontactable and another 400 as safe on the Chinese side. Eighty-four Indians have been rescued on the latest MEA count. Those figures sit beside Wagle's dollars because the flood is a labour and pilgrimage story as well as a fiscal one. The 2015 reconstruction was financed through a donors' conference and years of project delays. Wagle is signalling he wants a smaller, faster round. Whether $4 billion to $5 billion is enough depends on the lakes above the Bhote Koshi and on how many powerhouses can be restarted rather than rebuilt.

The comparison with 2015 is the useful frame for a reader who has already seen the death toll. The quake took a third of output in losses. This flood, on present numbers, takes a tenth in rebuild cost. The difference is geography. The similarity is that Nepal cannot write the cheque from tax. Wagle will have to take the estimate to Delhi, Beijing, the multilateral banks and the same capitals that sent search teams this week. The first draft of that ask is now public. The second draft will arrive when the barrier lakes either hold or fail.