NBC Poll Shows Democrats Leading 52-45 on Congressional Ballot One Day Before Midterms

An NBC News poll released on 1 November 2026, conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, found that 52 percent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress and 45 percent preferred Republican control. The survey of 1,000 registered voters (700 by telephone, 300 online) was fielded from 28 to 30 October and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.

A separate Ipsos survey released on 2 November showed presidential disapproval at 64 percent and approval at 32 percent among 1,765 adults. The same pollster's likely-voter sample on the generic congressional ballot gave Democrats 52 percent to Republicans 44 percent. Multiple other late polls—YouGov, Focaldata, Emerson, Reuters/Ipsos—clustered in a Democratic lead of 6 to 10 points on the national House ballot.

These national figures do not translate directly into seat totals. The House map still contains a number of districts that favored the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 by double digits. A 7-point national Democratic edge has historically produced House majorities, but the precise margin depends on the distribution of the vote across competitive seats. Senate control remains narrower. Current Republican majority stands at 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, or three seats plus the vice-presidential tie-breaker if they hold the White House, which they do not.

State-level polling in the final days showed tight races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan. In Michigan, the Democratic primary winner Abdul El-Sayed faced an unexpected endorsement of his Republican opponent by a Democratic member of Congress, complicating turnout calculations. Alaska's race between incumbent Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola remained within a few points in late surveys.

Presidential approval in the low-to-mid 30s is the lowest reading for an incumbent in the final week before midterms since modern polling began for several presidents. The NBC poll and the Ipsos numbers both place disapproval above 60 percent. Historical patterns associate such figures with losses for the president's party, though the size of those losses has varied.

Early voting totals in several states exceeded the equivalent period in 2022. New Zealand's advance voting, reported in parallel international coverage, also ran ahead of its previous election, but that comparison is not directly relevant to US turnout models. US early vote composition by party remains incomplete in most states until election day.

The final NBC poll is one data point among several. Its 7-point Democratic edge on the congressional preference question sits inside the range of other late national surveys. Whether that edge holds on election day, and how it is distributed, will determine control of the House and the net change in the Senate.

Campaign activity on 2 November concentrated on the remaining undecided or low-propensity voters in the closest Senate and House districts. No single national poll released on the final day shifted the aggregate picture outside the existing 6-to-10-point band.