Met Office Forecasts Strongest El Niño in Living Memory

The UK Met Office stated on 21 August 2026 that the developing El Niño event is likely to be the strongest in living memory and probably the largest since the nineteenth century.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting, said the signal in Met Office forecasts is more intense than any he has previously seen. A typical El Niño produces a rise of 1–2 °C in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region. Current forecasts show values exceeding 3 °C later this year as the event peaks in winter.

Sea-surface temperatures are already more than 2 °C above normal. Other forecast systems produce similar or higher projections. If realised, the event would exceed modern instrumental records that begin around 1950.

Large El Niño events release additional heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. Dr Nick Dunstone of the Met Office noted that 2027 is therefore very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and to temporarily exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.

Regional impacts already visible include below-average monsoon rains in parts of India and suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity so far this season. Southern Africa and north-east Australia face elevated drought risk. North-western Europe, including the United Kingdom, is forecast to experience increased rainfall and storminess around November.

There is no clear evidence that climate change has made El Niño events themselves more frequent, but the weather extremes they produce occur on a warmer baseline and are therefore more severe. The Met Office described the current development as unprecedented in the modern observational record.

The event is expected to peak in the coming winter months and to influence global temperature statistics through 2027. Agricultural, water-resource and disaster-management agencies in affected regions have begun adjusting seasonal outlooks accordingly.