Latvia votes for a new Saeima as Kulbergs and Sovereign Power run close

Latvia opened polls at 8 a.m. on Saturday for the 15th Saeima, with 1,428 candidates on 14 lists competing for 100 seats. First results are expected within hours of the 8 p.m. close. A final picture is likely only after midnight.

Reuters reported that opinion polls put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List ahead on about 14 percent, closely followed by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power. A Latvian poll average compiled by notepad.lv from SKDS, dated 16 September, and Latvijas Fakti, published 23 September, had the United List nearer 23 percent of decided voters, Latvia First near 14 percent and Sovereign Power near 13 percent, with seven lists clearing the 5 percent bar. The gap between the wire figure and the local average is large enough that Saturday night's count, not either poll, will settle the order.

The Central Election Commission lists 1,557,615 eligible voters. Advance voting from 28 September to 2 October had already taken 174,517 ballots, 11.2 percent of the roll. Riga accounted for 68,321 of those, 11.4 percent of its 599,242 voters. Vidzeme was ahead of that pace at 12.7 percent. Latgale, on the Russian and Belarusian frontier, was slowest at 8.8 percent.

How the 100 seats are cut

The five districts are fixed. Riga elects 38 members, Vidzeme 26, Zemgale 13, Latgale 12 and Kurzeme 11. Voters abroad are counted in the Riga district. A voter may cast a ballot at any station in the country. Parties must clear 5 percent nationally to take seats. The last election, in 2022, drew a 59 percent turnout and 916,691 votes. New Unity won 26 seats, the Union of Greens and Farmers 16, the United List 15, the National Alliance 13, For Stability! 11, the Progressives 10 and Latvia First 9.

This time the field is thinner: 14 lists, five fewer than last time, and 398 fewer candidates. Ballot number one went to the Sovereign Power and Young Latvians alliance. The Progressives drew 14. Seven lists are fielding enough candidates to be treated as serious national contenders: the National Alliance, Latvia First, the Progressives, New Unity, the United List, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and Sovereign Power. Harmony Centre has 105 candidates, the New Conservative Party 85, Latvia's Development 84, We Are Changing the Rules 77, Rising Sun for Latvia 75, Gobzems' List 73 and Stability! a shorter slate.

Drones, and a prime minister of four months

Kulbergs, 47, a businessman and amateur rally driver, has been prime minister since 28 May 2026. He took office after the previous coalition broke over the handling of stray military drones. In May, Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace undetected. Officials blamed Russia for diverting them. Moscow denies any plan to attack NATO, and Western officials say Russia is not in a position to mount a direct assault on the Baltic states. Kulbergs has promised more anti-drone kit and has said defence spending will stay at 5 percent of gross domestic product, among the highest shares in the alliance.

His line on the war is direct. He told reporters Latvia has to give Ukraine everything necessary now so that Kyiv can hold the upper hand. Campaign posters in Riga carried the line that Kulbergs is the solution. President Edgars Rinkevics, in office since 8 July 2023, is not on the ballot. The presidency is elected by the Saeima, not by this vote.

Sovereign Power, led by Julia Stepanenko, has campaigned on the cost of living for the Russian-speaking minority and against aid to Ukraine. Stepanenko said her voters want peace, want to stop looking for shelters, and want the air alerts to end. She said the war must not be encouraged, including by financing it, and that Ukraine must win through peace talks. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, has shifted toward an anti-Ukraine stance in the late campaign. The Progressives are the main left list aimed at younger voters.

Latvia has about 1.9 million people. Estonia and Lithuania, both allies, sit to the north and south. Russia and Belarus sit to the east. The election is the first since the drone incidents that brought this government down and then brought Kulbergs in. Coalition arithmetic is the likely next fight. On the Reuters numbers, no list is near a majority, and at least Latvia First and the Progressives are in range of the 5 percent line. A United List lead of a few points over Sovereign Power would still leave the next cabinet dependent on who clears the threshold after midnight.