Kenya will ban raw gold exports and build three refineries, Ruto says in Kisumu

President William Ruto said on Monday that Kenya will make it illegal to export gold that has not been processed inside the country and cleared through government-approved channels. Speaking to reporters at Kisumu State Lodge, he said the same rule would in time cover every mineral Kenya mines. He named Ghana and Zimbabwe as the models he intends to copy.

“We’re going to make it illegal for anybody to export gold from Kenya if it’s not processed and through approved government channels,” Ruto said. “That’s what Ghana did and what Zimbabwe has done and that is how we are going to do it in Kenya. And not just for gold, for all minerals that we are mining in Kenya.”

The government plans at least three gold refineries. Officials have pointed to Kakamega, in the western mining belt, and Nairobi as the first sites. Bloomberg and local reporting put the most advanced project in Kakamega, backed by a Sh5.8 billion commitment from H-NUO Kenya Company, with a target of mid-2027 for operations. A second plant is planned for the capital. A third site has not been fixed in public documents.

The Central Bank of Kenya is due first claim under a planned domestic gold-purchase programme. That would give the state a regular bid for locally refined metal and a way to pull output out of an informal market that officials have long failed to tax in full.

Kenya is a small producer by African standards. Public estimates put output near 300 kilograms a month. The more striking figure in circulation this week is the size of unregulated trade: about 36 billion shillings a year in gold deals that never touch a formal counter. That number, if even roughly right, is the reason Ruto is talking about channels and refineries rather than new pits. The state wants the metal to stop leaving as raw concentrate in a truck and start leaving as a bar with a receipt.

The politics sit in the west. Kakamega, Vihiga, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii and Migori already host prospecting and artisanal work. One current bid covers about 322 square kilometres across Homa Bay, Kisii and Migori for Group C precious metals. A ban on raw exports without working refineries would strand that ore or push it back into smuggling. Ruto’s timetable therefore matters more than the slogan. Mid-2027 for Kakamega is the first date that can be checked.

Ghana and Zimbabwe offer mixed lessons. Accra’s ban on raw gold exports raised official purchases and also fed a parallel market when refiners could not take the volume. Harare has used similar rules to steer metal toward the state. Both countries discovered that a ban is only as strong as the plant that replaces the exporter. Kenya’s artisanal miners, who work with pans and small crushers rather than industrial mills, will feel the rule first. If the approved channels pay late or below the bush price, the metal will move at night.

For buyers in Dubai, Mumbai and Zurich the change is a paperwork problem until the refineries exist. After that it is a question of whether Kenyan bars meet the assays those markets already trust. A Central Bank purchase window could absorb some of the early output and give the government a stock it can pledge or sell on its own book.

Ruto framed the policy as value addition, the same phrase African governments have used for copper, lithium and bauxite. The difference in gold is speed. A bar can be poured in a small plant. A copper smelter cannot. That is why three refineries, not a single national complex, is the plan on the table in Kisumu.

The test is narrow. Watch whether the legal instrument names gold first or all minerals at once. Watch whether H-NUO’s Kakamega plant pours metal by the middle of 2027. Watch whether the Central Bank publishes a buying price that artisanal miners will actually take. If those three pieces land, Kenya will have copied the Ghanaian statute with a smaller geology. If they slip, the ban will mainly move the same ounces onto a different road.