Japan Considers Nearly Doubling Defence Spending to Up to 80 Trillion Yen

Japan’s government and ruling coalition are considering setting defence buildup spending for the five years from April 2027 at 70 trillion to 80 trillion yen, or roughly 457 billion to 508 billion dollars. That range is about 1.8 times the 43 trillion yen allocated under the current five-year plan that began in fiscal 2023. Two people familiar with the discussions described the figures to Reuters. The final number could still change as the government compiles the budget and revises its three security-related documents by year-end.

One source said the additional spending is expected to fund large numbers of drones and that a weaker yen has raised the cost of procuring defence equipment. A second source said the final figure might fall in the mid-to-late 70 trillion yen range and questioned whether even that sum would be sufficient given the security environment in East Asia. The Defence Ministry said it had no comment. Sankei Shimbun separately reported that the ministry’s internal estimate for the next Defence Buildup Program covering fiscal 2027-2031 stands near 80 trillion yen.

The current plan, adopted at the end of 2022, raised planned spending from an earlier 27.5 trillion yen figure and prioritised long-range missiles for counterstrike capability, ammunition and spare parts. The new consideration comes under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has emphasised strengthening military capabilities. The government intends to revise the three security documents a year ahead of the original schedule.

Discussions will involve the government and coalition partners. Limited financial resources are expected to push the eventual allocation toward the lower end of the range under consideration. The ministry’s estimate incorporates costs for unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, space and cyber capabilities in response to China’s expanding military activities and the war in Ukraine. Equipment procurement has already risen sharply in recent years, while personnel costs have increased more modestly.

Japan has moved from a post-war emphasis on a limited self-defence posture toward higher spending levels. The 2022 plan marked a clear acceleration. The figures now under discussion would continue that trajectory. No official decision has been taken. The numbers remain subject to negotiation inside the government and with coalition partners before the year-end budget process.

A weaker yen increases the yen cost of imported systems. Sources indicated that drone procurement is one area likely to receive emphasis. The security documents to be revised set the overall framework for force structure and spending priorities. The outcome of those revisions will determine how much of the higher total is allocated to specific programmes.

The discussion reflects continued pressure from the regional environment and from domestic political priorities under the current administration. Whether the final allocation reaches the upper end of the 70-80 trillion yen band will depend on budget constraints and coalition negotiations in the coming weeks.