Isaias is a hurricane at 80 mph, 445 miles south-southwest of the Mississippi mouth

Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, was centred near 23.3 north, 91.2 west at 0900 UTC on Thursday, about 150 nautical miles northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 445 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi. The National Hurricane Center in Miami put maximum sustained winds at 70 knots, 80 miles an hour, with gusts to 85 knots, and the minimum central pressure at 979 millibars. Peak seas were near 20 feet. The storm was moving east-northeast at 8 knots.

The upgrade came overnight. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters dropped a sonde in the southwest quadrant that found a 150-metre boundary-layer average wind of 76 knots. That reading was the basis for naming Isaias a hurricane at 0330 UTC. A NOAA P-3 then took over the sampling. Tail Doppler radar still showed some northward tilt with height, which the centre linked to moderate westerly shear, but the circulation was more aligned than on Wednesday's flight. Peak radar winds reached 80 knots at 500 metres. Reduced to the 10-metre level, the centre held the advisory intensity at 70 knots.

The forecast track in Discussion Number 7, issued at 400 am CDT by forecaster Papin, keeps the centre over the central Gulf through Friday and brings it ashore inside the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. The 12-hour point is 24.2N 90.0W at 85 knots. The 24-hour point, Friday morning, is 25.9N 88.6W at 95 knots, about 110 miles an hour. By Friday afternoon the centre is forecast near 28.4N 87.6W at 90 knots. The 48-hour point, Saturday morning, is inland near 31.0N 87.6W at 55 knots, already a tropical storm. By Saturday afternoon it is a depression near 33.7N 88.5W. The centre dissipates the remnant by Monday morning.

A hurricane warning covers the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida. The centre said damaging hurricane-force winds are expected over parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, and told residents to prepare for long power cuts. Heavy rain is forecast for the central Gulf coast and much of the Southeast from Friday into the weekend, with flash flooding, urban flooding and isolated river flooding. Gusty winds and heavy rain were also possible on the western Yucatan through Thursday.

Local orders were already in place before the 5 am advisory. The west end of Dauphin Island, Alabama, was under an evacuation order, as were Zones A and B in Okaloosa County, Florida. Bay District Schools in Florida closed campuses on Thursday and Friday, citing the likely use of Deane Bozeman School as a shelter. Walton and Okaloosa county schools closed for the same two days. Jackson, Liberty, Holmes and Gulf counties planned Friday closures, with some Thursday early dismissals.

Offshore, the storm is the first Atlantic hurricane in a season held back by a strong El Nino, which has produced shear that has kept systems from organising. Reuters reported on Thursday that Isaias had become the first hurricane of the season and that Shell and Chevron were curtailing Gulf platforms. The Marine Minerals Administration said that as of Wednesday producers had shut in about 25.08 percent of current Gulf oil output and 16.37 percent of current natural gas output. One later market note put the oil shut-in near 511,619 barrels a day. Those figures will move with the next operator reports. The centre itself does not count barrels. It counts wind, pressure and the cone.

The late start is the other number that sits beside the advisory. ClickOrlando, citing the centre's record, said Isaias is the latest first hurricane of the satellite era, which begins in 1966, passing the previous mark of 11 September. The season runs to 30 November. A first hurricane in October does not mean a quiet year from here. It means the Gulf is meeting its first one with refineries, platforms and barrier-island towns in the same forecast cone.

What matters through Friday night is the timing of landfall against the tide, and whether the shear that has tilted the core keeps the storm under the 95-knot peak in the morning forecast or lets it go higher. The centre's own line is plain: further strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should still be a strong hurricane as it nears the northern Gulf coast on Friday night.