India will send Nepal 654 MW for 18 hours a day until 31 December

The Ministry of Power said on Monday that India has approved the export of 654 megawatts to the Nepal Electricity Authority for 18 hours a day, from midnight to 6 pm, until 31 December 2026. The approval is effective from 13 September. Up to 600 MW will move on the Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar 400 kV double-circuit line. Up to 54 MW will move on the Tanakpur-Mahendranagar 132 kV single-circuit line. Volumes from January 2027 will be reviewed in December.

The ministry's reason was blunt. Recent floods damaged hydropower plant in Nepal, cut domestic generation and created an extra need for electricity. India remains committed to supporting Nepal and to bilateral energy cooperation, the statement said.

The floods began after an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on 26 August. Nepal's national disaster authority put the death toll at 1,385 by 11 September, with 5,130 people missing. More than 12 hydropower plants were swept away or damaged. About 900 power-station workers were among the missing. Hydropower is almost all of Nepal's electricity and had become an export earner. After the damage, Kathmandu stopped selling power to India and asked to buy it instead.

The numbers behind the swap

On 31 August, people familiar with the grid told CNBC-TV18 that about 550 MW of Nepali capacity was estimated damaged and that Nepal's exports to India had fallen by about 400 MW. The 654 MW cap now runs the other way. It is not a 24-hour baseload contract. The 18-hour window leaves the evening peak on Nepal's side of the ledger and uses the two existing cross-border lines rather than a new wire.

Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar is the main 400 kV link. Tanakpur-Mahendranagar is a smaller 132 kV circuit in the west. Together they can carry the approved 654 MW if both stay in service. Any outage on the 400 kV line would drop the cap toward the 54 MW western circuit, which is not enough to replace a dozen wrecked plants.

India has sold power to Nepal before in dry months, when Nepali rivers run low. This request is different. It follows a disaster that removed capacity rather than a seasonal dip. The December review is therefore a test of how fast Nepal can repair civil works in river gorges before the next winter.

What the deal does not settle

The ministry note does not publish a tariff. Cross-border sales usually clear through the Indian power exchanges or through bilateral contracts under the existing India-Nepal power trade guidelines. Those prices will decide whether the 654 MW is a neighbourly rescue, a commercial sale, or both.

It also does not restore the export story Nepal had been building. For several seasons Kathmandu sold surplus monsoon power into the Indian market. That flow paid for some of the new plants now sitting in the silt. Until those units are rebuilt, Nepal is a net buyer again, and India is the only connected market large enough to cover the hole.

Eighteen hours a day through 31 December is a stopgap with a date. The review in December will show whether the stopgap becomes a 2027 contract or whether the rivers and the repaired turbines take the load back.