Hurricane Lowell sits 415 miles off Kauai with 115 mph winds and a warning up

At 2 a.m. Hawaii time on 7 September, Hurricane Lowell was near 17.0 north, 163.0 west, about 415 miles southwest of Lihue and 445 miles southwest of Honolulu. Maximum sustained winds were 115 miles per hour. Minimum pressure was 950 millibars. The National Hurricane Center classified it as a Category 3 storm moving north-northeast at 10 miles per hour.

A hurricane warning covered Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. Rainbands were already over Kauai and Oahu. The centre is forecast to pass west of Niihau on Monday night and Tuesday morning, then bend northwest and slow.

Lowell is the fourteenth named storm, fifth hurricane, fourth major hurricane and second Category 5 of the 2026 eastern and central Pacific season. It formed on 27 August and reached Category 5 intensity on 2 September, with peak winds near 160 miles per hour on 4 September. It has since oscillated as major hurricanes do when eyewall cycles take turns.

What the islands are being told to expect

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's rainfall map is specific. Kauai County: 6 to 10 inches, isolated 14 inches. The Big Island: 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12. Oahu: 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8. Maui: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8. Flash flooding and mudslides are the main inland threat on Kauai and on windward slopes of the Big Island.

Surf of 20 to 30 feet is in the forecast, with rip currents on all shores. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is listed for Kauai and up to 1 foot for Oahu, on top of those waves. The Honolulu forecast office also flagged the chance of several tornadoes near Kauai and Niihau.

Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on 3 September for Lowell and for the remnants of Karina, the previous storm. The state activated 129 National Guard members and sent six high-water vehicles to Kauai. Two state parks closed to campers on 4 September.

Third storm in three weeks

Hawaii rarely sees this density of named storms. Forecasters have tied the burst to a strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, which warms the water that feeds eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and tends to steer them farther west. Karina and an earlier system already soaked parts of the chain. Saturated soil is why the flood watches run through 8 September even if Lowell's eye stays offshore.

The forecast track has drifted east over successive advisories, which is why watches over Kauai were raised to warnings on 7 September. A miss of 75 to 95 miles west of Niihau is still close enough for hurricane-force winds on high ground, where speeds often run 30 percent above the surface number.

Lowell is expected to weaken as it moves north into cooler water, but it is expected to remain a hurricane during the closest pass. The practical question for Kauai on Monday night is not the category label. It is how many inches fall on already wet slopes, and whether the surf takes the western beaches before the wind does.