Hurricane Lowell passes west of Kauai with 20 to 30 foot surf

Hurricane Lowell was due to make its closest approach to Hawaii on Monday afternoon and evening, passing west of Kauai and Niihau with the centre remaining over open water. A tropical storm warning is in force for those two islands. A flood watch covers the whole state through Tuesday afternoon.

At the Sunday evening advisory Lowell was a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 miles per hour, about 485 miles south-southwest of Lihue and moving north-northeast at 9 miles per hour. Hurricane-force winds reached about 60 miles from the centre. Tropical-storm-force winds reached about 175 miles. Earlier in its life the storm had hit Category 5 twice, with a peak of 160 miles per hour and a central pressure of 922 millibars, the first Pacific hurricane to do that twice since Ioke in 2006.

What residents were told to expect

The National Hurricane Center and local forecasters warned of 20 to 30 foot surf on south and west facing shores of Kauai and Niihau by Monday afternoon. Oahu and the west-facing Kohala coast of the Big Island were also in the warning-level swell. The pulse arrives with monthly high tides, which raises the chance of road overwash and harbour closures.

Rainfall forecasts on Sunday put 6 to 10 inches on Kauai and the Big Island, with isolated totals near 14 inches. Flash flooding and mudslides are the main inland risk, especially on Kauai's north and east slopes. East-facing shores still had a leftover 7 to 10 foot swell from dissipating Tropical Storm Karina.

Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on 3 September because Lowell was the third major storm in three weeks. A hurricane watch also covers parts of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument to the northwest.

Why the miss still matters

A centre that stays 100 to 200 nautical miles west of Kauai is a better outcome than a landfall. It is not a clean miss for the western islands. The right-front quadrant of a north-moving storm still throws its strongest winds and seas toward Kauai if the track sags east. Forecasters had already shifted the cone slightly east on 5 September, which raised the odds of tropical-storm-force winds at Nihoa, about 150 miles northwest of Kauai.

Hawaii's power grid, harbours and single-highway coastal roads do not need a landfalling eye to fail. High surf alone can close the Waimea and Kekaha stretches. Heavy rain on already wet ground, after two earlier storms, is how landslides take out the same roads a second time.

The season around it

Lowell formed on 27 August and became the fourteenth named storm, fifth hurricane, fourth major hurricane and second Category 5 of the 2026 eastern and central Pacific season. No deaths and no damage figures had been posted by Monday afternoon because the closest approach was still underway. That ledger will be written after the swell and the rain hit the western islands overnight.

Labor Day traffic is the other pressure. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had already warned of mainland delays after the Miami cargo crash on Sunday. Hawaii's problem is local: visitors trying to leave Kauai if the airport takes a crosswind or if the highway from the north shore is under water.

The next useful update is the Monday evening advisory. If the centre stays west and the rain stays under the high end of the range, Lowell will be remembered as a near miss that still tore up beaches. If a feeder band parks over Kauai, the emergency Green signed on 3 September will have been the correct call.