Houthis take Perim Island and complete their hold on Bab el-Mandeb

Houthi fighters reached Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday after Yemeni government forces withdrew, completing a week-long push that now puts the Iran-aligned group on both shores of one of the world's busiest shipping gates. A local official speaking to AFP said boats carrying armed men landed on the island, also called Mayyun, a day after government units pulled out. Witnesses described gunmen driving military vehicles along the mainland shore at Dhubab, the last town that faces the island.

Perim is a volcanic rock of about 13 square kilometres that sits in the narrowest stretch of the strait and splits it into two shipping channels. It has an airstrip and has been a military prize for every power that wanted to watch traffic between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Four officials from the internationally recognised government told Reuters the island had fallen. A second official told The National that Zuqar, another Red Sea island further north, was also in Houthi hands. Analysts at Crisis Group said the capture of Mocha on Thursday had already given the group the islands that face that port.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the operation that began on 3 September had expelled Saudi-backed forces from six districts in Taiz and Hodeidah and that the campaign was a success. He said navigation through the strait remained safe for all companies except Saudi vessels, which the group had already barred. Sarea framed the offensive as a reply to what he called Saudi aggression against Yemen. Government sources said they would try to retake the lost ground. Mohammed Al-Basha of the Basha Report said the anti-Houthi coalition is crumbling and had added about 130 kilometres of coastline in 48 hours.

The timing matters because the same week Iran and its partners have squeezed the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Preliminary ship-tracking data showed only seven vessels passing Hormuz on Thursday, against a 10-day average of ten. Euronews noted that hostile control over both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would put a large share of seaborne trade under threat at once. Brent crude had already climbed above 105 dollars a barrel after Mocha fell. Saudi Arabia separately shut its East-West crude pipeline on Friday as a precaution after drone strikes on pump stations in the Riyadh and Medina regions on Thursday.

Bab el-Mandeb carries a large slice of Europe-Asia container traffic and a share of oil that used to go around Africa only when the Red Sea was already unsafe. Perim's position inside the strait is different from earlier Houthi pressure from the mainland. From the island a force can watch both channels, place batteries closer to the traffic lane, and complicate any attempt to land troops from the sea. Ahmed Nagi of Crisis Group told CNN that dislodging the group from Perim would require a massive international force and the navies.

The United States has limited what it will do for the Saudi-backed side. CNN reported tight limits on direct strikes, tanker refuelling and other operational support. That leaves Riyadh and the recognised government to decide whether to fight for the island or accept a new status quo in which the Houthis hold the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast and the islands that sit on the lane.

Sarea's claim that maritime navigation is safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels is a political message as much as a military one. It tells Asian and European shipowners they can keep using the short route if they stay off the Saudi list, while it keeps pressure on Riyadh's own exports. Whether insurers and navies accept that bargain will show up first in war-risk premiums and in the number of boxships that still choose Suez over the Cape.

Government troops remain on the Hanish islands under siege, according to military sources. If those positions fall, the Houthis will hold the main island chain from the southern mouth of the Red Sea up toward Hodeidah. That would complete a coastal belt they have sought since the war began more than a decade ago.

The immediate test is commercial. Shipowners already rerouted around Africa in earlier Red Sea campaigns. A second closure, stacked on Hormuz disruption, would hit oil, grain and container schedules at the same time. The next few days of AIS tracks through the small and large channels of Bab el-Mandeb will show whether Friday's landing stays a local military fact or becomes a global freight event.