Houthis take Greater and Lesser Hanish, tightening hold on the Red Sea lane

Yemen's Houthi movement now holds Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish, two volcanic islands that sit about 160 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Two officials from the internationally recognised government and one Houthi official told the Associated Press on Monday that rebel fighters moved onto the islands after hundreds of government-allied troops pulled out of the archipelago.

The takeover did not come in isolation. Last week the same force seized the Red Sea port of Mokha and Perim Island, also called Mayun, which splits the Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping channels. Taken together, the three positions give Ansar Allah a chain of observation and firing points along the waterway that now carries a larger share of Saudi crude because the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the opening days of the Iran war.

How the islands changed hands

Yemen Shabab TV reported on Sunday that nearly 1,000 government-aligned soldiers who had been stationed on the Hanish islands and on nearby Zuqar Island arrived in Djibouti after fleeing a Houthi attack. The Associated Press account on Monday was more cautious on timing. It said it was not clear exactly when the group wrested control, only that fighters were on the ground and that the previous garrison had gone.

The Hanish group lies between Yemen and Eritrea. Greater Hanish is a long, narrow volcanic island of about 20 kilometres. Lesser Hanish and a scatter of smaller islets sit on the same north-east to south-west line. Control of the cluster matters less for population than for line of sight. Ships heading north from the Gulf of Aden toward Suez pass within range of the islands before they reach the narrower throat at Perim.

The islands had been held by UAE-backed allies of the Aden government. Their withdrawal followed a week in which Houthi units pushed down the Tihama coastal plain and took Mokha, the last significant government port on that stretch of the Red Sea. A Yemeni government official described the loss of Mokha and Perim as a painful defeat and said more forces would be sent to the coast. Clashes were also reported on the approaches to Marib and Taiz, two cities still held by the Presidential Leadership Council.

Why the waterway is more valuable this month

In peacetime, about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz. That route is now blocked by Iranian forces and by the wider war. Saudi Arabia has been pushing crude west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, then out through the Bab el-Mandeb. A drone strike last week forced that pipeline offline. The Houthi advance along the same exit route therefore hits the workaround as well as the original chokepoint.

On Sunday the fighting intensified again. Government units attacked Houthi positions along the Red Sea, and the Houthis fired into Saudi Arabia, which backs the Aden government. The group also claimed a drone and missile strike on a military base in southern Saudi Arabia. Gulf states that had planned talks with Iran over a temporary Hormuz shipping lane called those talks off, citing the missile fire and the lack of an Arab consensus.

China, a large buyer of Middle East crude, said on Monday that Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure were unacceptable and that it was deeply concerned about further escalation against the kingdom. The statement did not name Iran, the Houthis' principal external backer.

What the map now looks like

The internationally recognised government, supported by a loose set of militias, still holds the south and east of Yemen, including Aden. The Houthis hold Sanaa, the north-west highlands, and now a growing strip of the Red Sea coast plus the islands that watch the shipping lane. The geography is old. What is new is the coincidence of three closures: Hormuz in the Gulf, the East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia, and a rebel presence on both sides of the Bab el-Mandeb.

Shipowners already divert around Africa when the Red Sea is too dangerous. That route adds time and fuel. It also leaves less spare tanker capacity at a moment when diesel prices in the United States have set records and Brent crude has traded above $108 a barrel. The Hanish landing does not by itself stop every ship. It does give a force aligned with Tehran another place from which to watch, threaten, or hit traffic that Saudi Arabia now needs more than it did a year ago.

Government officials in Aden have promised reinforcements. Whether those units can retake islands after a garrison has already left for Djibouti is a separate question. For now the public record is simple. Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish are under Houthi control, Perim is under Houthi control, Mokha has fallen, and the alternative oil route out of the Gulf is under pressure at both ends.