Houthis reach Perim Island and Dhubab, tightening hold on Bab el-Mandeb

Yemeni government officers told Reuters on 11 September that Iran-aligned Houthi fighters had reached Perim Island, the rock that sits in the throat of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Two of those officers said government units had already pulled off the island. The same sources said the movement had taken Dhubab, the last large town on Yemen's western shore, which looks straight across the water at Perim.

Perim, known locally as Mayyun, covers about 13 square kilometres. It divides the strait into two shipping lanes between Yemen and Djibouti. Control of the island and of Dhubab is what officers had described a day earlier as the condition for holding the strait itself.

The advance follows the capture of Mocha on 10 September and, according to Yemeni officials speaking to The National, the islands of Hanish and Zuqar. A security official told that newspaper the entire western coast had fallen. Government spokesman Colonel Majed al-Nazili called the units terrorist militias and told civilians to stay off the Taiz-Mocha road and away from Houthi equipment. He said government forces would try to retake the lost ground.

Why the island matters now

Bab el-Mandeb sits on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of global oil used to move through Hormuz until the war between the United States, Israel and Iran closed that passage. Saudi Arabia then pushed more crude onto the East-West pipeline that dumps oil onto the Red Sea. That workaround only works if the Red Sea itself stays open.

The International Energy Agency put Saudi crude supply at 6 million barrels a day in August, down 2.3 million barrels a day and the lowest in more than three decades. Houthi attacks on ships in the strait were part of that drop. Global prices were on course to finish the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May.

Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group called the takeover of Perim a change in the geometry of the war. In earlier years the Houthis sat about 90 kilometres from the strait and created uncertainty. From the island they sit inside the channel.

Satellite images verified by Reuters showed black smoke on 10 September over a stretch of the East-West pipeline south of Medina. Aramco and the Saudi government media office did not answer questions about the images. Copernicus Sentinel-3 supplied the frames.

Iran, Riyadh and Washington

Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources told Reuters that the coastal push came with guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Two Iranian sources said Tehran had told the Houthis last week to step up attacks on Saudi Arabia and had promised more money, weapons and officers. Iran publicly denies giving military direction and describes the group as an ally rather than a proxy.

Axios, citing two U.S. officials, reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked President Donald Trump to strike the Houthis and that Trump refused. Washington has increased targeting support for Riyadh without sending its own aircraft into Yemen.

The Financial Times reported that Gulf foreign ministers were due to meet their Iranian counterpart in Salalah, Oman, on Monday to talk about a temporary arrangement for Hormuz shipping. Reuters could not confirm that meeting. Ship-tracking data put Hormuz transits at seven vessels on Thursday, down from 11 the day before and below a ten-day average of ten.

What the strait carries

Nearly a third of world container traffic normally uses the Red Sea. Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb together handle more than a quarter of seaborne crude and petroleum products. A second closed choke point would sit behind the first.

Families have already left al-Wazi'iyah, Mawza and Hays as the front moved south. Al Arabiya reported ballistic missiles fired toward southern and western Taiz and two strikes near Mocha airport. Government units sent reinforcements from Mocha toward Dhubab, then lost the town.

Houthi fighters reached Perim by boat after the garrison left, a local official told Euronews, speaking without attribution. An eyewitness described gunmen driving along the Bab el-Mandeb shore in military vehicles.

The government in Aden says it will come back for the coast. The geography of the strait does not wait on that promise. As long as Perim is held from the island and Dhubab is held from the shore, the lane that Saudi oil now depends on runs past positions the Houthis can see with the naked eye.