Houthis hold Mayyun and the Hanish islands and sit across Bab al-Mandab

Houthi forces now hold the Yemeni shore of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the islands that sit in the channel, according to officials of the internationally recognised government and witnesses on the coast. A local official told AFP on Friday that the group had "completed their takeover of the Bab al-Mandab area and Mayyun Island." A military official later said Greater and Lesser Hanish, the last two islands in the waterway that had remained outside Houthi hands, had also fallen.

Mayyun, also called Perim, is a volcanic island of about 13 square kilometres that splits the strait into two shipping lanes. It lies roughly 3.5 kilometres off Yemen's west coast, between the mainland and Djibouti. Zuqar was reported taken in the same push. After seizing the port city of Mocha on Thursday, Houthi units moved south through Dhubab, the last major town that looks directly onto the strait. A witness described armed men driving along the shore in military vehicles. One official summarised the week: "Everything that was under our control on the western coast has fallen."

The Sanaa-based Yemen Press Agency, citing field sources, said the Al-Omari camp overlooking the strait was taken. The Houthi authorities themselves have not issued a formal confirmation of control over Bab al-Mandab. The government in Aden has not produced a public count of its remaining positions on that coast.

The geography is why the reports moved markets. Bab al-Mandab is the southern gate to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. After Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the year, more oil and container traffic had been pushed onto the Red Sea route. About a fifth of global energy shipments used to pass Hormuz. The alternative is now in the hands of a force aligned with Tehran. On Friday both Brent and West Texas Intermediate were above $100 a barrel as the island reports came in.

Saudi Arabia has a direct interest. The kingdom is trying to move crude while an East-West pipeline has already been hit and, according to Iraqi and Saudi officials, an attack on that line originated from Iraqi territory. Houthi units have targeted Saudi tankers since July. Riyadh answered the Mocha seizure with airstrikes on the city's airport, a Houthi broadcaster said. Damage and casualties were not independently confirmed.

The week of fighting has killed hundreds, government officials said, and sent civilians south toward Aden. The United Nations has warned that a return to full-scale civil war would produce a humanitarian collapse on top of a shipping shock. Donald Trump said the Houthis had called Washington to ask the United States not to intervene on the government's side. That claim has not been documented in a White House paper.

Control of a strait is not the same as a working blockade. The Houthis would still need boats, missiles and a decision to use them against commercial traffic. What they have now is the ground from which those weapons can be fired with less warning and shorter range. Insurers price that change before navies do. The question for shipowners is no longer whether the Red Sea is contested. It is whether the contested zone now includes the gate itself.