Gulf oil flows, Iran excluded, recovered to 81 percent of the pre-war rate

Oil flows from the Gulf, Iran left out, recovered in September to a bit over 81 percent of the rate in the year before the war, Vortexa data cited by Reuters on Tuesday show. The seven producers in that set, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, shipped 19.2 million barrels a day of crude, condensate and refined fuels including LPG. The average in the year before 28 February, when the war with Iran began, was about 23.6 million barrels a day.

Kpler's tally for the same month is 18.6 million barrels a day. The two trackers do not count the same barrels in the same way, and a gap of 0.6 million barrels a day is large enough to matter for a market that is still short of product. Both say the direction is up. Neither says the pre-war rate is back.

The split inside the barrel is the useful part. Crude and condensate recovered to 91 percent of their pre-war level of 16.3 million barrels a day, on Vortexa's numbers. Refined fuels, including LPG, are still at 60 percent of a pre-war 7.3 million barrels a day. Refineries and export terminals for products have not come back with the crude system. Reuters noted record or near-record prices for diesel and jet fuel in several markets, which is what a 40 percent hole in product exports looks like at the pump.

Saudi Arabia accounts for the rebound. Kpler puts Saudi crude and condensate exports at 6.6 million barrels a day in September, up 4.2 million from August. Reuters' summary says Saudi shipments rose by more than 4 million barrels a day and that the kingdom's increase more than covered declines elsewhere. Kuwait and Qatar exported less. The UAE and Iraq exported more. Iran exported nothing. Kpler has Iranian exports at zero for the month, which it ties to the US blockade.

Add Iran back into a crude-and-condensate total and the regional picture is still a recovery, from a low base. Kpler puts combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran at about 14.7 million barrels a day in September, against 10.8 million in August. The jump is almost entirely the Saudi number. A blockade that takes Iran to zero, and a Saudi increase of 4.2 million, can land in the same month.

The infrastructure caveat is in the same Reuters account. The Saudi rebound came despite attacks on the kingdom's oil system and despite Iranian attacks on regional shipping. September's average does not say October is safe. It says the barrels got out in September, including through a month in which Houthi strikes hit airports at Jazan and Najran and a power station feeding the Prophet's Mosque in Medina.

For buyers the product gap is the binding constraint. A crude recovery to 91 percent of the old rate does not refill a diesel market that is still missing 40 percent of Gulf fuel exports. Jet fuel sits in the same hole. Airlines and trucking fleets pay the product price, not the crude recovery rate. That is why a headline of 81 percent can coexist with tight diesel.

What September does not settle is whether Saudi Arabia can hold 6.6 million barrels a day of crude and condensate exports if the air and drone campaign against its energy sites continues into October. The Vortexa and Kpler files are a month in arrears. The attacks are not.