Germany’s heat death toll hits 15,800, the highest in a decade of RKI tracking

The Robert Koch Institute now estimates 15,800 heat-related deaths in Germany between 6 April and 16 August 2026. That is the highest total in the ten years the institute has kept a consistent series. About 9,600 of the deaths sit in the late-June week when temperatures passed 40 degrees Celsius. Another 4,000 fall in the first two weeks of August. Last week's estimate, cut off at 9 August, was about 14,000. The curve is still being revised upward as death certificates catch up.

People aged 85 and older account for about 7,960 deaths. The 75-to-84 group adds about 3,900. Ages 65 to 74 add about 2,440. About 1,470 of the dead were younger than 65. More women than men appear in the total because women are a larger share of the oldest age bands. Heatstroke kills some of them directly. Most die from heat stacked on heart, lung or kidney disease.

Where the rate is worst

Measured per 100,000 residents, Saarland is highest at about 53 and Rhineland-Palatinate next at about 48. Hesse is near 35 and Baden-Württemberg near 32. Hesse alone is estimated at about 2,190 heat deaths this year, already more than the state has recorded in any full prior year in the series. The RKI notes that earlier peaks were 8,900 in 2018 on one reading and 7,600 in 2019 on another. A separate medical paper has put 1994 near 10,000, outside the current method.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said the practical response sits with the Länder: cooling rooms, warning systems, checks on older people living alone. France, Britain and Spain have all posted thousands of excess summer deaths in the same months. The Danube ran low enough this summer that Hungary's Paks nuclear plant had to cut output for weeks before returning to full power. Wildfires and crop damage have run in parallel. The RKI number is the mortality slice of that season, not a separate event.

What the method can and cannot say

These are statistical estimates, not named case counts. The institute models extra deaths against temperatures and baseline mortality. The series is comparable year to year inside Germany. It is not a courtroom roster. It also stops at 16 August. If another hot spell arrives in late August or early September, the 2026 total will move again.

The age split is the part that should change how cities staff August. Almost half the deaths are in people over 85. Night-time temperature, housing stock without cooling, and whether a nurse or relative visits in the afternoon are the variables that separate a survivable hot week from a lethal one. Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate already show what a high rate looks like on a small population. The national figure of 15,800 is what that pattern looks like when it is added up.