G7 will release 100 million barrels, with diesel front-loaded in 20 days

The G7 will release 100 million barrels of crude and oil products, with a large share of diesel moved in the first 20 days, after a videoconference chaired by President Emmanuel Macron on Friday.

The joint statement, issued from the Elysee, said the release begins at once and runs over four months, coordinated by the International Energy Agency. G7 members and partners will supply the barrels. The same statement said the group will not restrict energy exports to one another, and it called on all producers to avoid bans that would tighten the market further.

That line was aimed at Washington. Some Republicans had urged President Donald Trump to ban US diesel exports to pull down the domestic price. Trump ruled the ban out after the European agreement. The French embassy in the United States said he and Macron spoke overnight before the videoconference about fuel prices and the availability of products.

The price that forced the call is specific. AAA put the US national average for a gallon of diesel at $6.37 on Friday. The record was $6.52 on 22 September. Diesel, not crude, is the tight product. Refinery outages, a long disruption in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the US-Iran war, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have all cut product supply. Crude released from a salt cavern still has to be refined. Macron's team and the IEA have both noted that the diesel tranche is what can reach pumps inside three weeks. The rest of the 100 million will move more slowly.

The IEA added its own number on Saturday. Of the 400 million barrels member countries pledged on 11 March, about 325 million have been released, a little over 80 percent. The agency did not say whether Friday's 100 million includes the remaining 75 million from March or sits on top of it. The G7 statement did not say either. That gap matters for traders. If the 100 million is new, the draw on strategic stocks since March is heading toward 425 million barrels. If it absorbs the unreleased March balance, the new oil is 25 million barrels plus a reallocation toward diesel.

The March pledge came from the IEA's 32 members, a group that includes all the G7: Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States. France holds the rotating G7 presidency and drafted the Friday text. The IEA will run the mechanics, as it did in March. Releases of this kind usually move through tender or directed sale, with the barrels entering commercial pipelines rather than being given away. Governments then decide whether to refill, and at what price.

The Hormuz disruption is the backdrop. Before the war, the strait carried about a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas as well as a large share of crude and product. European gas prices jumped after the fighting started. Product markets, especially diesel, have stayed tight even when crude has eased, because refineries cannot turn every barrel into the fuel trucks and farms use. A coordinated product release is an attempt to break that gap without a US export ban that would have hit European buyers directly.

Italy has already signalled a limit on how far governments will go. ANSA reported on Friday that Rome will scale back a planned rise in defence spending for 2028 because of inflation and the energy bill. The G7 release does not change that budget choice. It does give finance ministries a four-month window in which diesel supply is less dependent on a single strait and on Russian product that Ukrainian strikes have reduced.

The open question is refill. Strategic stocks drawn since March are already down 325 million barrels against a 400 million pledge. Another 100 million, if it is additional, would leave the IEA system with a large hole and no published schedule for putting the oil back. Diesel prices at $6.37 are the reason the hole is being dug. The cost of filling it will show up in a later IEA balance, not in Friday's statement.