Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2.3 million votes and forces a runoff on 25 October

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva into a runoff on 25 October after neither man reached half of valid votes in Sunday's first round. With 99.89 percent of sections counted, the Superior Electoral Court gave the Liberal Party senator 56,077,637 votes, or 47.05 percent, and the Workers' Party president 53,785,199 votes, or 45.13 percent. The gap is 2,292,438 votes.

Behind them sat the writer Augusto Cury of Avante on 2.89 percent, Renan Santos of Missão on 2.24 percent, and Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party on 2.18 percent. Caiado and Santos, who together hold about 5.3 million votes on Al Jazeera's count, have said they will not endorse either finalist. Those ballots are the pool both campaigns will spend the next three weeks chasing.

A map that looks like 2022

Bolsonaro was the most voted candidate in 15 states. Lula was ahead in 12. The split is close to the one that marked the 2022 election. Lula won all nine northeastern states, with his strongest shares in Piauí at 70.97 percent, Bahia at 66.09 percent and Maranhão at 63.94 percent. He also led in Pará, Amazonas and Amapá.

Bolsonaro took the whole South, the whole Southeast and the whole Centre-West, plus four northern states: Roraima, Rondônia, Acre and Tocantins. His best shares were Roraima at 71.06 percent, Rondônia at 67.45 percent and Santa Catarina at 66.65 percent. A candidate who wins the three richest regions and still sits only two points ahead nationally is a candidate who has not broken the Northeast. Lula's floor there is the reason a first-round knockout did not happen, and the reason the runoff is still open.

Polls had the order reversed

Most polls before Sunday had expected a second round, and had Lula finishing the first round ahead. He did not. Bolsonaro's two-point lead is the fact those polls missed. Analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters the first-round result looked like a protest vote from people who wanted Lula beaten and were willing to use Bolsonaro to do it. Favetti's caution was that this support may already be front-loaded, which would limit how much further Bolsonaro can grow by 25 October.

Lula, who is 80 and seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, said he had been convinced he would win in the first round. He called the remaining campaign extra time, and said that in extra time his side would win over the Brazilian people. Bolsonaro said the result showed Brazilians want change.

The family result was wider than the presidential ballot. Jair Bolsonaro, the former president, is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after the 2022 loss and is barred from running. He endorsed his eldest son and has tied a hope of release to a family return to the Planalto. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, won a Senate seat in the Federal District. Carlos Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother, won a Senate seat in Santa Catarina. The Liberal Party is on track to be the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies.

The three weeks to 25 October turn on voters who chose Cury, Santos and Caiado, and on whether the Northeast margins hold. A swing of a little over 2.3 million votes would reverse the order. Neither man has a majority. The court will open the second round with Bolsonaro ahead, Lula still president, and the Senate already carrying two more members of the Bolsonaro family.

Congress moves with the presidential ballot

The presidential gap of 2.3 million votes is narrower than the shift in Congress. Al Jazeera reported that right-wing parties, with the Liberal Party in front, gained in both the Chamber and the Senate, and that the PL is on course to be the largest bloc in the lower house. A president who wins the runoff on 25 October will face a legislature already elected. If Lula wins, he governs against a chamber that has just moved toward the party of the man he beat. If Bolsonaro wins, he inherits a chamber his party is positioned to lead, plus two family members already seated in the Senate.

Turnout figures for the first round had not been published in the counts used here. What is published is the valid-vote split and the state map. The Northeast gave Lula his floor. The South, Southeast and Centre-West gave Bolsonaro his lead. The 5.3 million votes held by Caiado and Santos, both of whom have refused an endorsement, are larger than the gap between the finalists. That is the arithmetic of the next three weeks.