Ethiopian forces retake Abala, Erebti and Megale, and point three axes at Mekelle

Pro-government forces have retaken the Afar towns of Abala, Erebti and Megale and pushed the Tigray People's Liberation Front out of Afar region, AFP reported on Friday via France 24. A counter-offensive is moving into Tigrayan territory on three axes toward Mekelle. A pro-government Tigrayan militia posted a video of fighters chanting the name of that city.

Fighting started last week, when the TPLF moved into Afar and Amhara. That is the first large ground push since the 2020-2022 war, which ended in a cessation-of-hostilities agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022. The new clashes have already drawn in the two neighbours Ethiopia says are behind the rebels. On Thursday Addis Ababa expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara. Eritrea answered by cutting diplomatic ties. Ethiopia has also been in a public row with Egypt over the Nile dam, and the African Union said it was following the tensions among Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt with concern and urged maximum restraint.

TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael put a wider frame on the fighting in a video published late on Thursday. He said the war is regional and is a war to control the Red Sea. Eritrea has long treated Ethiopian talk of sea access as a threat to its coast. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in 1993. A fight that began as a TPLF raid into Afar is now being described, by the rebel leader himself, as a contest for a port.

The humanitarian note from Afar is narrower and more immediate. A humanitarian source told AFP that the TPLF was out of Afar as of Thursday, that the humanitarian situation had hardly changed, and that the departing forces had raided and destroyed as they left. The source said there is no access to food in the north of the region. No casualty total for the week's fighting has been published by either side.

The air war has run alongside the ground push. Rebel forces have used drones against airbases and airports, including three attacks last Sunday in Oromia and Amhara, AFP reported, citing the Critical Threats Project's account of a drone campaign that also reached Addis Ababa to show the rebels can widen the map. A drone strike hit the Tigray TV broadcaster on Sunday. Overnight from Wednesday to Thursday, drone strikes hit the Ministry of Defence and an army base in the capital. Each side has an interest in claiming the other's drones. The reported targets are specific enough to fix the week: a broadcaster in Tigray, a ministry and a base in Addis Ababa, three regional airports on Sunday.

Mekelle is the political prize of the three-axis advance. It is the Tigrayan capital, and the militia video that chanted its name is a statement of intent rather than a report of arrival. Reuters, in a separate dispatch on Friday, said militiamen allied with the federal government said they were bearing down on the city, and that fears of a wider war had grown after the break with Eritrea. Distance still matters. Abala sits on the Afar-Tigray line. Erebti and Megale are further into Afar. A force that has just cleared those towns is not yet at the gates of Mekelle, whatever the chant.

The Pretoria agreement is the document this week has put back in question. It froze the front lines, disarmed part of the Tigrayan forces on paper, and left the federal government in Addis Ababa and the TPLF in an uneasy administrative truce. A rebel advance into Afar and Amhara, a federal counter-push toward Mekelle, and a diplomatic break with Asmara are three breaches of the quiet that agreement was meant to buy. Egypt's place in the AU statement is a reminder that the Red Sea line Debretsion named is not only an Eritrean fear. Cairo has its own dispute with Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

What is established as of Friday is a short list. Three Afar towns are back in pro-government hands. The TPLF is out of Afar, and a humanitarian source says the north of that region has no food access after the retreat. Drones have hit targets in Tigray and in the capital. Ten Eritrean diplomats have been ordered out, and Asmara has cut ties. Debretsion has called the war a fight for the Red Sea. The march on Mekelle has been announced. It has not been completed.